Leos/Bombers West Final Keys to the Game
Posted: Wed Nov 08, 2023 9:45 am
LEOS/BOMBERS WEST FINAL KEYS TO THE GAME
Its ‘Do or die”, Bang a Gong, Get It On”, “When the Going Gets Tough the Tough Get Going, and “There is No Tomorrow”.
The CFL West Final between our beloved B.C. Lions and those butt ugly Winnipeg Blue Bombers will soon be played on the cold playing field in Bomberland. The weather report calls for sunny clear skies with a high of 2 degrees and a low of 0.
The CFL Simulator says the Bombers have a 91.12% chance of winning this game, which for all you Lionbackers math wizards out there, that means CFL Simulator gives our Leos an 8.8% chance of winning this contest. It’s a miserable looking outlook, made even worse by the fact that the CFL simulator gave the Montreal Alouttetes a 29.65% chance of winning the East Final. CFL Simulator does not view our Leos squad as a CFL top tier team, giving us only a 3.39% chance of holding the Grey Cup above our heads at the Big Dance this season.
But that outlook is even sunny compared to our own Lionbackers Cromartie who emphatically posted “The Lions aren’t winning this game” but did give himself an out on his urn inscription.
So why the projected mismatch? There are some good reasons why this game should be hard to pick. The Leos and Bombers played three games against each other this season and the Bombers won the rubber match with an OT victory at B.C. Place. Offensively, both teams led the CFL in passing yards with the CFL’s best two quarterbacks in terms of passing yards.
Both teams have talented receiving corps. Keon Hatcher and Alexander Hollins both had over 1,000 yd. receiving seasons as CFL Topp 5 receivers. Jevon Cottoy was the CFL’s most reliable possession receiver. The Bombers had three receivers in the Top 15 this season with Dalton Shoen, Kenny Lawler, and Nic Demski all having an ability to get open and make plays.
Defensively, both our Leos and the Bombers can get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Mathieu Betts led the CFL in sacks and Teuhuma and Baron can get after a quarterback too. The Bombers front four can also disrupt a passing attack with pressure, as Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffcoat create matchup problems. Our Leos had 55 sacks this season and the Bombers had 53 of them.
But the following areas provide support to the notion that the Bombers will prevail on Saturday. They are also my keys to this game. We look forward on Lionbackers to reading your 'keys to the West Final'
RUSHING
Winnipeg led the CFL in rushing first downs (165) while our Leos finished dead last in this category with 95. The Bombers running attack was tough to stop all season long with Olivera rushing for a CFL leading 1,534 yds. – an impressive number. Meanwhile our Leos, with the worst rushing attack in the CFL with Taquan “Lots of Smoke, No Fire Mizzell, we have a dynamic passing attack but its a one dimensional offence, which creates greater challenges, especially against a top tier defense.
EXPERIENCE
The Bombers have been in the Grey Cup the past three seasons and won two and almost had three in a row, if not for the last minute heroics of Chad Kelly coming off the bench in last year’s exciting Grey Cup finish. The Bombers have so many of those clutch playoff performers back this season from Collaros to Demski to Willie Jefferson and Adam Bighill. They know how to win big pressure games.
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE
Our Leos took the season series to overtime before losing to the Bombers but our Leos were decimated by the Bombers when we played them the only time as visitors this season. The Bombers are very, very tough to play at home.
So, what will it take for our Leos to have a chance at the upset?
1. CREATE SECOND AND LONG SITUATIONS
Our Leos will lose if we allow the Bombers to have a lot of second and short situations, where our defense will not know if they are going to run or pass and where play action means our defensive line has to play both run and pass ( and where play action freezes linebackers and creates larger openings for receivers underneath).
In order to do that we need to play the run better than we have all season. Perhaps Woods at middle linebacker will be a difference maker. He had a heck of a game against Calgary. We may not be able to shut the run down completely but if we can find a way to shut down a running play for a small gain on first down, then it will help our pass rush on second down, knowing the Bombers are passing.
The Bombers only gave up 33 sacks this year, in part because they pass block well, in part because Collaros is shifty in the pocket and rolls out effectively, but also in part because opposing defenses have to guess run or pass too often for second down situations.
2. FIND NEW WAYS TO RUN THE FOOTBALL
Lets face facts. The Stamps rushed three defensive linemen who were pinning their ears back to try to get some pressure on Adams and we were able to triple team Calgary’s nose tackle on run plays and still Tiquon (All Smoke, No Fire) Mizzell could not find a hole, averaging 2 yards per carry on 11 carries. He could not find a hole even when we went Wildcat. Our starting tailback has an incredible ability to run into a would be tackler…its like he seeks to be tackled!!
But there are other ways to skin a cat. Adams ran incredibly against Calgary. That will be tougher to do against the Bombers and one can bet Bighill will spy Adams at times. But we need to find ways to reduce the Bombers pass rush. Adams running the football, with the occasional fly sweep tossed in will at least help with balance.
Being a one-dimensional offence against the Bombers and winning is a very difficult task. We also will need to include some quick passing plays, hot reads, dump offs, wide screens, etc. to help reduce the Bombers notion that they can just pin their ears back to shut down our medium threat passing attack.
3. MAKE SPLASH PLAYS, ELIMINATE OUR OWN MISTAKES.
When a team is an underdog, as our Leos are, going into Winnipeg, the best chance of victory is to eliminate mistakes while also causing the other team to turn the football over.
We will need some splash plays to win this game – a fumble recovery, an interception, a big return,, a big play on special teams. In other words, we have to play hard, not take penalties and play a very disciplined brand of football and at a very high level of performance, while causing the Bombers to be the team that turns the football over or is the team making the mental error or showing a lack of discipline. That will not be easy to do but in order to change the odds in our favor, we will need some special plays.
WRAP
The Bombers have had a two week layoff. They haven't played a meaningful game for a while. They have had a lot of time to watch tape and game plan and prepare for us. But they also may have some rust. An early lead would be huge, as it was for us in the Calgary game, where we lead after the first quarter and then never looked back.
But we also cannot afford to do what we did against Calgary - give up big plays early and turn the football over early either. Its playoff football - where you not only have to play smart but also play with incredible heart and as a team in order to win!!
Oh yeah, and one more thing...root, toot, we just gotta execute!!
Go Leos!!
Its ‘Do or die”, Bang a Gong, Get It On”, “When the Going Gets Tough the Tough Get Going, and “There is No Tomorrow”.
The CFL West Final between our beloved B.C. Lions and those butt ugly Winnipeg Blue Bombers will soon be played on the cold playing field in Bomberland. The weather report calls for sunny clear skies with a high of 2 degrees and a low of 0.
The CFL Simulator says the Bombers have a 91.12% chance of winning this game, which for all you Lionbackers math wizards out there, that means CFL Simulator gives our Leos an 8.8% chance of winning this contest. It’s a miserable looking outlook, made even worse by the fact that the CFL simulator gave the Montreal Alouttetes a 29.65% chance of winning the East Final. CFL Simulator does not view our Leos squad as a CFL top tier team, giving us only a 3.39% chance of holding the Grey Cup above our heads at the Big Dance this season.
But that outlook is even sunny compared to our own Lionbackers Cromartie who emphatically posted “The Lions aren’t winning this game” but did give himself an out on his urn inscription.
So why the projected mismatch? There are some good reasons why this game should be hard to pick. The Leos and Bombers played three games against each other this season and the Bombers won the rubber match with an OT victory at B.C. Place. Offensively, both teams led the CFL in passing yards with the CFL’s best two quarterbacks in terms of passing yards.
Both teams have talented receiving corps. Keon Hatcher and Alexander Hollins both had over 1,000 yd. receiving seasons as CFL Topp 5 receivers. Jevon Cottoy was the CFL’s most reliable possession receiver. The Bombers had three receivers in the Top 15 this season with Dalton Shoen, Kenny Lawler, and Nic Demski all having an ability to get open and make plays.
Defensively, both our Leos and the Bombers can get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Mathieu Betts led the CFL in sacks and Teuhuma and Baron can get after a quarterback too. The Bombers front four can also disrupt a passing attack with pressure, as Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffcoat create matchup problems. Our Leos had 55 sacks this season and the Bombers had 53 of them.
But the following areas provide support to the notion that the Bombers will prevail on Saturday. They are also my keys to this game. We look forward on Lionbackers to reading your 'keys to the West Final'
RUSHING
Winnipeg led the CFL in rushing first downs (165) while our Leos finished dead last in this category with 95. The Bombers running attack was tough to stop all season long with Olivera rushing for a CFL leading 1,534 yds. – an impressive number. Meanwhile our Leos, with the worst rushing attack in the CFL with Taquan “Lots of Smoke, No Fire Mizzell, we have a dynamic passing attack but its a one dimensional offence, which creates greater challenges, especially against a top tier defense.
EXPERIENCE
The Bombers have been in the Grey Cup the past three seasons and won two and almost had three in a row, if not for the last minute heroics of Chad Kelly coming off the bench in last year’s exciting Grey Cup finish. The Bombers have so many of those clutch playoff performers back this season from Collaros to Demski to Willie Jefferson and Adam Bighill. They know how to win big pressure games.
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE
Our Leos took the season series to overtime before losing to the Bombers but our Leos were decimated by the Bombers when we played them the only time as visitors this season. The Bombers are very, very tough to play at home.
So, what will it take for our Leos to have a chance at the upset?
1. CREATE SECOND AND LONG SITUATIONS
Our Leos will lose if we allow the Bombers to have a lot of second and short situations, where our defense will not know if they are going to run or pass and where play action means our defensive line has to play both run and pass ( and where play action freezes linebackers and creates larger openings for receivers underneath).
In order to do that we need to play the run better than we have all season. Perhaps Woods at middle linebacker will be a difference maker. He had a heck of a game against Calgary. We may not be able to shut the run down completely but if we can find a way to shut down a running play for a small gain on first down, then it will help our pass rush on second down, knowing the Bombers are passing.
The Bombers only gave up 33 sacks this year, in part because they pass block well, in part because Collaros is shifty in the pocket and rolls out effectively, but also in part because opposing defenses have to guess run or pass too often for second down situations.
2. FIND NEW WAYS TO RUN THE FOOTBALL
Lets face facts. The Stamps rushed three defensive linemen who were pinning their ears back to try to get some pressure on Adams and we were able to triple team Calgary’s nose tackle on run plays and still Tiquon (All Smoke, No Fire) Mizzell could not find a hole, averaging 2 yards per carry on 11 carries. He could not find a hole even when we went Wildcat. Our starting tailback has an incredible ability to run into a would be tackler…its like he seeks to be tackled!!
But there are other ways to skin a cat. Adams ran incredibly against Calgary. That will be tougher to do against the Bombers and one can bet Bighill will spy Adams at times. But we need to find ways to reduce the Bombers pass rush. Adams running the football, with the occasional fly sweep tossed in will at least help with balance.
Being a one-dimensional offence against the Bombers and winning is a very difficult task. We also will need to include some quick passing plays, hot reads, dump offs, wide screens, etc. to help reduce the Bombers notion that they can just pin their ears back to shut down our medium threat passing attack.
3. MAKE SPLASH PLAYS, ELIMINATE OUR OWN MISTAKES.
When a team is an underdog, as our Leos are, going into Winnipeg, the best chance of victory is to eliminate mistakes while also causing the other team to turn the football over.
We will need some splash plays to win this game – a fumble recovery, an interception, a big return,, a big play on special teams. In other words, we have to play hard, not take penalties and play a very disciplined brand of football and at a very high level of performance, while causing the Bombers to be the team that turns the football over or is the team making the mental error or showing a lack of discipline. That will not be easy to do but in order to change the odds in our favor, we will need some special plays.
WRAP
The Bombers have had a two week layoff. They haven't played a meaningful game for a while. They have had a lot of time to watch tape and game plan and prepare for us. But they also may have some rust. An early lead would be huge, as it was for us in the Calgary game, where we lead after the first quarter and then never looked back.
But we also cannot afford to do what we did against Calgary - give up big plays early and turn the football over early either. Its playoff football - where you not only have to play smart but also play with incredible heart and as a team in order to win!!
Oh yeah, and one more thing...root, toot, we just gotta execute!!
Go Leos!!