Lions vs Calgary West Semi - Keys to the Game

[Blitz]

Start me up
Ah, ah, give it all, you've got to, you've got to
Never, never, never stop
Slide it up
Ah, rev it up to start it up, start it up
Never, never, never

Rolling Stones

They say its not how you start but how you finish. But more often than nought, in CFL football, its often how you start that ends up how you finish. The last thing our Leos need is a slow start. That will just play into Calgary’s offensive strategy of running the football often, wearing down our defense, and keeping the football our of the hands of our offence.

A few pre-game thoughts..

DEFENSE

In a one and done playoff game, you take away the opposition’s strengths and force them to do something they would prefer not to do. If Calgary is going to beat us, I would much prefer to take the chance of Maier beating us in the air more than watching our defense beaten into submission by Calgary’s relentless ground attack. Last game, Calgary rushed the football 31 times against us, putting up 213 yards, with an average of 6.7 yards per carry. It was a disgraceful outing by our defense. Maier completed less than 50% of his passes (10/21) for 123 yds.

The first key to this playoff game is obvious. Stop the run. Run blitz on first down. Cancel gaps. Plug holes. Make sure tackles.

OFFENCE

Calgary mixed up its coverages against us last game, throwing in some blitzes, more often on first down, but Calgary often rushed only three, dropped nine, and played tight underneath, while taking away the deep ball. Vernon Adams was very hesitant against 9 man zone, held onto the football too long and was too easily pressured or sacked with only three defensive lineman rushing. Adams tends to give up ground against a 3 man rush and also tends to have poor pocket presence for this defensive strategy.

If no one is open immediately, all Adams has to do is step up into the gap to one side or the other of the bull rushing nose tackle, who is being double or even triple teamed. That buys extra time for the receivers and Adams to make a play and also enables Adams to run if he so chooses. But Adams cannot do what he has done too often against a 3 man rush and that is to become a ballet dancer in the pocket. One decisive move is much better than three dance steps. He who hesitates loses.

With an offence so dependent on a passing attack, as Vernon Adams goes, so goes our offence. Hatcher, Hollins, Cottoy, MacInnnis, Whitehead, Rhymes - its a deadly receiving corps but it still relies on Adams getting them the football in the right spots.

It would be asking too much for our Leos run game to be a key factor. For an entire season, even with defenses overplaying our passing game and focusing on pass rushing, rather than run stopping, we have not had a strong running attack. Whether its “Where there is smoke there is no fire Mizzell" or whether its been Jaquan “I gotta get the rust out Hardy’, we have not been able to develop a strong, consistent running attack.

Mizzell, most often, has not given us his quickness and speed from the tailback position because he has juked so much he almost jukes himself out of his uniform and cleats (even with no defender close to him) whereas Hardy, at 225 pounds, has not driven defenders backwards as he should have for his size and strength in the two games he played.

But an offence cannot live off the pass alone so hopefully in this game, when we do run, we can be enough of a threat to keep the Calgary defense somewhat honest.

To make matters worse, Domique Davis has been a recipe for anxiety and depression as our third string short yardage quarterback. This situation had better have been addressed this time because there has been more than enough time to address it after our last game.

SPECIAL TEAMS

In a key playoff game, Sean Whyte brings experience and a proven record of clutch field goal kicking. Punting, field goal kicking, downfield coverage, turnovers can make or break a playoff game.

WRAP

The excitement of a pending Leos playoff game builds. Strategy will be very important for this game. “Root, toot, we just gotta execute” will not get it done. That has been proven over and over again in the past.

Campbell and Company will need a good game plan and the Leos coaching staff must also be prepared to make quick in game adjustments. There will be no do overs or "We’ll get it right next game. Its win or pack the bags and get ready for next year.

Go Leos!!

[DanoT]

You can't just flick a switch and become something that you haven't been all season. So I don't see the Lions do very well stopping the run...just like all season. And I don't see the Lions suddenly finding a running game on O.

The above doesn't give me confidence that the Lions will win this game.

[B.C.FAN]

Good post, Blitz. At the risk of stating the obvious, I'll add a few keys of my own.

PROTECT THE BALL

The Lions turned the ball over a whopping 6 times in their season finale against Calgary, including the final kneeldown when Rick Campbell just wanted to get the players off the field without further injury. The Stamps didn't turn the ball over at all, and scored 24 points off B.C. turnovers, not counting the Lions' lost scoring opportunity when Dom Davis fumbled on first and goal at the Calgary 1-yard line in a 10-3 game, leading to a game-defining and penalty-aided 109-yard Calgary TD drive.

On the season, the Lions were minus-13 in turnover ratio, by far the worst of all playoff teams. Calgary was plus-9, third best in the league behind Toronto and Montreal. The Lions were 7-1 when winning the turnover battle. The Stamps were 1-7 when losing the turnover battle. Five of the Lions' 6 losses occurred in games where they lost the turnover battle. Calgary ranked 9th in the league in touchdowns. The Lions need to make the Calgary offence earn their points.

DISCIPLINE

Lack of discipline was another key factor in the Lions' season-ending loss to the Stamps. B.C. took 10 penalties for 117 yards, many of them 15-yarders that occurred after the play and extended Calgary drives.

On the season, the B.C. defence took a league-high 68 penalties. B.C. defensive players need to control their aggression and get off the field when they can, and not give the Stamps free first downs and additional opportunities to run the ball and control the game tempo.

[TheLionKing]

You can't just flick a switch and become something that you haven't been all season. So I don't see the Lions do very well stopping the run...just like all season. And I don't see the Lions suddenly finding a running game on O.

The above doesn't give me confidence that the Lions will win this game.

Yup. The warts have been there all season and have not been addressed by the coaching staff. Expect the same on Saturday.

[Walt67]

Have to agree with everything here - and glad the discussion included real concerns about Davis on third downs and the unravelling discipline that has gotten so bad that even Betts felt obliged to take an obvious post-whistle penalty to join the flag party last game. Three or four weeks ago the concern was how badly things would go in the Frozen Peg. Now just beating Maier and Company has become a very open question.
I hope some kind of miraculous return to early-season form occurs if only to continue the good bring-back-the-fans vibe for the 2024 Grey Cup hosting season.
Let's also acknowledge that another stinker and continued success by Rick Tocchet and Co. would definitely make the Leos less relevant going forward.

[SammyGreene]

I hope some kind of miraculous return to early-season form occurs if only to continue the good bring-back-the-fans vibe for the 2024 Grey Cup hosting season.

This is a great point Walt.
After a 5-9 shortened 2021 season and Mike Reilly's subsquent retirement, the Lions took advantage of Rourke's rookie salary to dramatically re-tool their roster via free agency — mainly on defence with the signings of Betts, Menard, Baron and the return of Lokombo.

Everything was headed in the right direction since, with VA doing a more than admirable job stepping in for Rourke this season — highlighted by the dominating win in Winnipeg back in week 3.

The defence has regressed signifcantly and it all started with the blowout return visit to Winnipeg in early August.

I look at this year's team being 0-1 in the playoffs with the Bombers visit here Oct. 6 essentially being for 1st place and sending the Lions back on their 2022 playoff route.
Winnipeg dominated statistically, at least in the 2nd half, with a couple of red zone turnovers, nearly resulting in a BC win. But Collaros, Oliveria and company piled up the yardage while the Bombers made halftime adjustments to completely shutdown the Lions offence.
At least they were more than competitive in a 1st place showdown and that should bode well against an inferior opponent on Saturday.

But what happens (hopefully) over the next two weekends is going to determined what Lions are going to do moving forward with a number of key pending free agents. — keep everything intact or make some significant moves heading into a Grey Cup hosting year.

[MacNews]

"It's a battle of the lines - O-Line and D-Line. You gotta keep the lines tight." -Coach Gans

[Hambone]

There's an old saying that the best offense is a good defense. On Saturday it might be a case of the best defense is a good offense. Jumping out to a quick lead and maintaining or growing it might be the best defense against the Stampeder ground game.

[Toppy Vann]

There's an old saying that the best offense is a good defense. On Saturday it might be a case of the best defense is a good offense. Jumping out to a quick lead and maintaining or growing it might be the best defense against the Stampeder ground game.

...and this quote applies to how great defenses play in big games. Attacking, physical and totally disciplined.

I know this generation of young football players bring their own idiosyncracies to the games and the issue is is how to ensure everyone on your team has their "head in the game" even on the sidelines. That is something I'm not sure that some of these good, young BC Lion football players are consistent at when you see inconsistent play early in games.

Lack of discipline - especially defensive players - in taking unnecessary penalties suggests your team on the field is not all bought into the "no stupid penalties" mantra. When players know their team mates in football won't tolerate that, these penalties aren't happening when the play is over or some dumb act.

When your top DEF player fails in your last game, let's hope they've got it together.

Taquan Mizzell is healthy and back in the line-up:

JaQuan Hardy, who rushed for 67 yards and a touchdown in two games, has been returned to the practice roster. Canadian Kienan LaFrance (triceps) has been placed on the one-game injured list, leaving Mizzell as the only running back active.

https://3downnation.com/2023/11/03/b-c- ... emi-final/

[David]

Is there a correlation between our "all-black" uniforms and the number of penalties we take? It may sound like an old wives' tale but there have been numerous studies conducted which suggest here that teams wearing black uniforms DO get penalized more often.

It's the colour of aggression and there is a cultural interpretation of black to be synonymous with evil and malevolence (think back to the old cowboy movies in which the 'man in black' rode into town to cause trouble).

It would be interesting to determine whether we took fewer penalties in 2023 in our fog greys than blacks (I seem to recall one away game in black, but I don't remember which one).


DH

[Blitz]

I'm not surprised that Mizzell is back as our starting tailback. I have not been impressed with either Mizzell or Hardy but its more than just a tailback issue. My issue with Mizzell is that he does not have a great ability to find the open hole. When a team utilizes a man blocking scheme, run plays are designed for a specific hole and the run blocking is designed to create that hole.

However, zone blocking, which is most often utilized in spread offences and RPO offences, is designed in a way that the offensive line, as a unit, angle blocks to one side of the field in unison (compound blocks are also utilized for second level blocking) and there is no allocated hole. The tailback either finds a hole on the frontside of the play or jump cuts to the back side of the blocking. Therefore the key to tailback play in a zone blocking scheme, which is what our Leos utilize, requires a tailback who can find that open hole.

Quite often, in a zone blocking scheme, the tailback makes a nice run once he finds the open hole but if not the play is often stuffed by the defense or little or no gain. When that happens the offence gets a lot of second and 10, second and 9, or even second and 11.

The second issue with our running game is the same issue as we have in our passing attack - our offensive line is not very good. We ranked 6th in run blocking and 6th in pass blocking this season and we were even worse at pass blocking.

BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS

LT Jarell Broxton
LG Andrew Peirson
C Michael Couture
RG Sukh Chungh
RT Kent Perkins


The Lions’ offensive line finished the season ranked sixth in the CFL with a 56.5 run-blocking grade and a 53.2 pass-blocking grade.

Jarell Broxton had a stellar season, earning a 75.0 overall grade with a 75.3 run-blocking grade and a 69.6 pass-blocking grade. Both ranked first on the Lions among those with 100-plus snaps played this year.

So give credit to Adams and our receivers for overcoming inadequate pass blocking and yet be a top tier offence. We've managed to do that with a lousy run game and lousy pass blocking, with the exception of Broxton. The big question is whether we can win in the playoffs this year, with this offensive recipe.

P.S. There are some past offensive linemen we should have hung on to:

Brett Boyko earned a 72.2 overall grade, a 66.9 run-blocking grade and a 73.7 pass-blocking grade this season.

Peter Godber posted a 70.9 overall grade, a 66.5 run-blocking grade and a 78.7 pass-blocking grade.

[DanoT]

Is there a correlation between our "all-black" uniforms and the number of penalties we take? It may sound like an old wives' tale but there have been numerous studies conducted which suggest here that teams wearing black uniforms DO get penalized more often.

It's the colour of aggression and there is a cultural interpretation of black to be synonymous with evil and malevolence (think back to the old cowboy movies in which the 'man in black' rode into town to cause trouble).

It would be interesting to determine whether we took fewer penalties in 2023 in our fog greys than blacks (I seem to recall one away game in black, but I don't remember which one).


DH

My all time favourite western character was the original Man in Black---Paladin, of Have Gun -Will Travel, a TV show from the late 50s and early 60s. A good guy, baddest of the bad asses, and dressed all in black. HG-WT had a great them song: "Paladin, Paladin, where do you roam?, Paladin, Paladin, far far from home". Hopefully the Lions get to travel like Paladin, to Winnipeg for the Western Final and beyond.

[B.C.FAN]

We ranked 6th in run blocking and 6th in pass blocking this season and we were even worse at pass blocking.

BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS

LT Jarell Broxton
LG Andrew Peirson
C Michael Couture
RG Sukh Chungh
RT Kent Perkins


The Lions’ offensive line finished the season ranked sixth in the CFL with a 56.5 run-blocking grade and a 53.2 pass-blocking grade.

Jarell Broxton had a stellar season, earning a 75.0 overall grade with a 75.3 run-blocking grade and a 69.6 pass-blocking grade. Both ranked first on the Lions among those with 100-plus snaps played this year.

So give credit to Adams and our receivers for overcoming inadequate pass blocking and yet be a top tier offence. We've managed to do that with a lousy run game and lousy pass blocking, with the exception of Broxton. The big question is whether we can win in the playoffs this year, with this offensive recipe.

P.S. There are some past offensive linemen we should have hung on to:

Brett Boyko earned a 72.2 overall grade, a 66.9 run-blocking grade and a 73.7 pass-blocking grade this season.

Peter Godber posted a 70.9 overall grade, a 66.5 run-blocking grade and a 78.7 pass-blocking grade.

I like all 3 Calgary running backs better than any the Lions have used this year but I find it interesting that many analysts rate the Lions' offensive line ahead of Calgary's. Pro Football Focus rates Calgary's offensive line 8th overall, and the worst in the league for run blocking.

8. CALGARY STAMPEDERS (NO CHANGE)
LT D’Antne Demery
LG Zack Williams
C Sean McEwen
RG Ryan Sceviour
RT Joshua Coker

Joshua Coker finished the season with a 69.6 overall grade and ranked first on the Stampeders with a 67.7 run-blocking grade and a 68.2 pass-blocking grade.
Calgary fielded the worst run-blocking group in the CFL this year (50.6 grade) and ranked seventh with a 50.6 pass-blocking grade.

Pro Football Focus Final 2023 CFL offensive line rankings

That's why I don't put much stock in the popular belief that stopping Calgary's running attack is a major key to the game. On the season, Calgary's running attack and B.C.'s run defence were both in the middle of the pack statistically. Calgary averaged 5.2 yards per rush (6th in the league), while B.C. gave up an identical average of 5.2 yards per rush (3rd in the league). In the first 2 regular season games between Calgary and B.C., the Lions averaged 86.5 rushing yards while Calgary averaged 82 rushing yards. In the final B.C.-Calgary game, the Stamps piled up rushing yards, especially in the second half when they had a solid lead. More importantly, the Stamps' first 3 touchdowns were scored or set up by deep passes after the Lions had turned the ball over. Passing successfully, and avoiding turnovers, is the biggest key to the game for both teams.

[Toppy Vann]

BC RUN GAME:
Great insights Blitz on the offense, etc.

Not to quarrel with Blitz's perspectives other than to suggest how tough it must be for BC's O-line given lack of running play calls which gives the edge to the DEF before the snap of the ball.

BETTS ON TSN


In-depth with Mathieu Betts and featuring David Menard and Coach John Bowman a former Al :

Mathieu Betts: The Quarterback Nightmare
It's been a special season for BC Lions defensive lineman Mathieu Betts. CFL sack champion, the single-season record for most sacks by a Canadian, and now, West nominee for Most Outstanding Defensive Player. Mild-mannered off the field, the Montreal native transforms once he straps on his helmet. Here's more on Betts, his breakthrough year and the CFL legend who has helped push him to new heights.

https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/video/mathieu-be ... re~2800115

[Blitz]

BC RUN GAME:

Great insights Blitz on the offense, etc.

Not to quarrel with Blitz's perspectives other than to suggest how tough it must be for BC's O-line given lack of running play calls which gives the edge to the DEF before the snap of the ball.

Toppy Vann

Don't quarrel with me Toppy or you will be relegated to only special teams comments. I know you have more expertise in the kicking game than the run game anyway. Jest aside. I completely agree with you Toppy that its much harder to pass block when the opposition does not respect your run game so their defensive line can just tee off on every play.

B.C. Fan wrote:

That's why I don't put much stock in the popular belief that stopping Calgary's running attack is a major key to the game. On the season, Calgary's running attack and B.C.'s run defence were both in the middle of the pack statistically. Calgary averaged 5.2 yards per rush (6th in the league), while B.C. gave up an identical average of 5.2 yards per rush (3rd in the league). In the first 2 regular season games between Calgary and B.C., the Lions averaged 86.5 rushing yards while Calgary averaged 82 rushing yards.

In the final B.C.-Calgary game, the Stamps piled up rushing yards, especially in the second half when they had a solid lead. More importantly, the Stamps' first 3 touchdowns were scored or set up by deep passes after the Lions had turned the ball over. Passing successfully, and avoiding turnovers, is the biggest key to the game for both teams.

Calgary finished 6th in the CFL in rushing and 7th in the CFL in passing. Jake Maier completed only 62% of his passes and almost had as many interceptions as touchdowns (19 touchdowns, 16 interceptions) this past season. Reggie Beggleton finished 6th in CFL receiving yards (over 1,000 yds) but there is no other Calgary receiver in the CFL Top 20. Neither Calgary's run game nor its pass game seemed like much of a threat for most of the season.

In the last contest, even with Calgary's run game faring so well and with little pressure and a big lead, Maier completed less than 50% of his passes (10/21). If our Leos double cover Beggleton (which we likely won't but should) and get some pressure on Maier, I think we would be in good stead.

Any CFL team has the ability to hurt a defense on the ground or in the air if that defense is not playing soundly. Yes, Calgary did beat our defense in the air early last game and on the ground almost throughout. No question that we can't just over focus on stopping Calgary's run attack and give up big plays in the air. I am one of the populists who still believes that when a team rushes for over 200 yards on your defense in the last contest and only passes for 123 yards, they will be tempted to continue to try to do what worked so well last game. (and if so, we need to be prepared for such)

However, Calgary may be anticipating we will game plan to stop their run and come out passing. Or their game plan and play calling will be based on how we attempt to defense them - by formation, number of defenders in the box etc. Last year, Dickenson came out passing in the playoff, even when the strength of his offence all season had been his running attack.

I think the key is to get a lead early. As you noted B.C. Fan, Calgary got the lead (by some long passes) and then ran it down our throats. The key to that lead is for Adams to be on early. I anticipate our offence will see a lot of three man rush again, with nine dropping into coverage, mixed in with some blitzes with linebackers.

No question though, B.C. Fan, we really have to not turn the football over. However, if that is over-emphasized to Adams, he will freeze up and be hesitant to throw into windows against 9 Calgary defenders in zone. In this playoff game, Adams must be decisive - throwing, taking off, throwing while on the run. He has to say goodbye to the John Travolta dance moves in the pocket against a three man pass rush. Buying time against a 9 man zone can be very helpful to break down the defense but it can't be done by dancing or just giving up ground in the pocket.