2023-24 NFL/Seahawks Season Thread

[South Pender]

To carry on with Robbie's thread from last season re the NFL and Seattle Seahawks, let's look at what's in store this coming season now that training camps have opened across the NFL.

You'll recall that, at this time last year, things looked pretty dismal for the Seahawks, with Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner gone, and the expectation for the season was something in the realm of 4-5 wins in the 17-game schedule. I think it's safe to say that things look decidedly better at this point after the 'Hawks surprising 9-8 season in 2022 and the addition of some terrific-looking rookies via the 2023 draft. Let me lay out some information and predictions about the team going forward.

1. Additions to the offense and the outlook for 2023. At the skill positions, the Seahawks added via the 2023 draft (a) 1st-round pick WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (regarded as the top receiver in the entire draft) to play primarily in the slot and freeing things up for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett outside, and (b) 2nd-round pick RB Zach Charbonnet to add size and power to an already strong backfield alongside last-year's rookie sensation Kenneth Walker.

On the O-line, both rookie tackles from last year, Charles Cross and Abe Lucas, who played pretty well last season, are expected to be improved after a year in the NFL. They’ve added two new centers to the competition after last year’s center, Austin Blythe, retired—Evan Brown, who started with Detroit last season and rookie 5th round draft pick Olu Oluwatimi, who won both the Outland Trophy (outstanding interior lineman) and the Rimington Trophy (outstanding center) in college football last season with Michigan. In addition, they’ve added rookie 4th-round draft pick OL Anthony Bradford, a 345-lb. mauler, who will compete with Phil Haynes for the right guard position. The main weakness in the 2022 O-line was the interior, and this is where much improvement will need to take place.

The outlook for this year’s Seahawks offense is pretty favorable. They ranked 13th overall in offense in the NFL last season, and the expectation is that they will improve on that ranking in 2023. This will depend, of course, on whether QB Geno Smith can return to his high-level of play from last year and whether what was a poor showing from last season’s O-line (which always seems to be a weakness with the ‘Hawks) can be brought up to at least an average ranking in 2023. Some pundits are predicting a top-5 year for the 2023 Seahawks offense, although that definitely seems overly-optimistic to me, and I’d be happy with a top-10 finish.

2. Additions to the defense and the outlook for 2023. The defense was the major weakness on the 2022 edition of the Seahawks, ranking 26th overall among NFL teams, and it doesn’t look all that much better going into 2023. Added in the draft (with the 1st round 5th overall pick) is the top-rated corner from the college ranks in Devon Witherspoon, and also, in free agency, former New York Giants safety Julian Love. These additions should propel the Seahawks’ secondary into (or close to) the top tier by adding strength to an already-strong unit from last season. With star safety Jamal Adams expected back from injury (at some point in the season, but not necessarily in Week 1) at strong safety or hybrid safety/linebacker, the ‘Hawks could have arguably both a top-5 CB tandem and a top-5 safety group, and so they should be strong against the pass. I believe that we'll see a lot of 3-safety looks in the secondary, and there is good flexibility in this CB/Safety group--with several CBs fully capable of playing safety (Coby Bryant being perhaps the best example as he can switch between nickel corner and strong safety) and vice versa. I think we'll see some innovative deployments in the 'Hawks' secondary in 2023.

Although the Seahawks have brought back Bobby Wagner and added another linebacker from the Steelers, Devin Bush, they remain questionable in their run-stopping capability. They’re probably stronger at off-ball linebacker, and, as of 8/26/23, they've got back from serious knee surgery ILB Jordyn Brooks, a tackling machine that has led the team in tackles in the past. This likely means that Wagner and Brooks will be the starters at ILB, with Bush rotating in.

On the outside, they’ve added (from the 2nd round of the draft) Derick Hall, who should strengthen the pass rush, with Hall (or, more likely, Darrell Taylor or 2022 2nd-round pick Boye Mafe) playing opposite Uchenna Nwosu, last season’s best Seahawks edge rusher. So some improvement in the pass rush appears possible.

Where the Seahawks defense looks weakest is the D-line, (or perhaps more precisely the front seven) which was very poor last season, giving up a lot of yards against the run (where they were 30th out of 32, giving up an average of 151.9 yds./game). Looking at this year’s additions doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in much improvement in that area, although bringing back Bobby Wagner after his one year with the Rams should help. They’ve added one outstanding D-lineman, Dre'Mont Jones (from the Broncos), brought back Jarran Reed, and added another D-lineman, Mario Edwards Jr., all in free agency, and have added a couple more from the draft, Cameron Young and Mike Morris. There remains concern about the team’s strength at nose tackle, a key piece in any 3-4 defense, which is what the ‘Hawks will be running again in 2023. This will be Clint Hurtt's second season as DC and the second running a 3-4 scheme, and the hope is that with a year in this alignment behind them, the 'Hawks will be better.

Edit (8/3/23). It looks as if the Seahawks are now leaning towards playing Jarran Reed at NT--this after a week and a half of training camp. This will be a new position for Reed, as he's been a 3-tech previously with the Seahawks and last season with the Packers. We'll see if another interior D-lineman is brought in before the beginning of the regular season.

Edit (8/29/23). This hasn't happened, much to the disappointment of the rabid Seahawks fans (the "12"s). I had expected a trade to have been made by now to strengthen the interior D-line. Perhaps John Schneider and Pete Carroll are hoping to pick up someone from the other teams' cuts with the 53-man initial rosters having to be established today (8/29).

All things considered, the Seahawks D doesn’t look like a strength for 2023. With their strong secondary and with possible improvement from the edge rushers, they could be harder to pass against than they were last year (and they weren’t too bad in that area in 2022). However, the inability to stop the run (at which they were really terrible last season) will likely continue to at least some extent. Overall, it seems likely that the defense may improve a little from their 26th overall rank in 2022, and at the very best they may make it into the top half of the league in defense.

3. Special Teams. The Seahawks have real strength in this part of the game, with two of the best kickers in the NFL. Place kicker Jason Myers is a top-3 FG kicker (and is in the top three kickers re salary) with Pro Bowl credentials. Punter Michael Dickson has also made the Pro Bowl and has been an All-Pro. His towering punts have often flipped the field for the 'Hawks, and he is among the best in the NFL at pinning opponents inside their 20-yard line. As for punt and kickoff returners, this is not completely settled yet, although at this point it looks as if DeeJay Dallas will likely continue to perform in that role. In the past, several players have alternated at this task,

4. Coaching. This is a little harder to evaluate with much precision. On offense, OC Shane Waldron is entering his third year with the team, coming to the 'Hawks from the Rams where he had been Passing Game Coordinator. He has been given credit for helping Geno Smith have a Pro Bowl season in 2022, and so, although quite young, he may be one of the better OCs in the NFL. Will he be able to raise the overall offensive efficiency--with some new weapons--in 2023? Time will tell. On defense, DC Clint Hurtt is going into his second year in that role, having been promoted from Defensive Line Coach when Ken Norton, Jr. was fired as DC two years ago. Although the defense was poor in 2022, I haven't seen this universally attributed to Hurtt. As noted above, he installed a 3-4 front for the first time last season, and it's possible that the team wasn't quite ready for it. The team should be more-fully acclimated to it this season. So, at this point, the jury's out on Hurtt.

As for Head Coach, it's hard to find much wrong with Pete Carroll's performance in that role with the 'Hawks. There has been the occasional complaint about some of his in-game decisions, but, on the whole, he is regarded as one of the top HCs in the NFL (a recent poll had him at #5). The team's overall performance over the past decade has been outstanding, and much of this should, I think, be attributed to Carroll's ability to energize and inspire his players and his ability to build a very positive and competition-oriented culture around the team. He has done well over the years at getting his guys playing at a higher level than what others had expected and is the epitome of a "players' coach."

5. Overall Prospects for the Seahawks in 2023. The Seahawks went 9-8 in 2022, and the expectation among many pundits is that they should be a little stronger this season and able to do as well in 2023. It's probably worth pointing out that the 'Hawks are one of the youngest teams in the NFL and will have many players in 2023 who are either rookies or in their second year. To be more precise, 45 percent of Seattle's active roster consists of rookies or second-year players. One current pre-season prediction of expected wins in the 17-game season for the 32 NFL teams has the Seahawks at 8.5 wins, placing them at 6th or 7th in the NFC. I’d guess that they will end up somewhere in the 8-9 to 10-7 range, although if Geno Smith continues to shine at QB, they could go a little higher. The general consensus among most football writers is that the Seahawks will end up 2nd in the NFC- West, below the 49ers and above the Rams (expected to be 3rd) and the Cardinals, who appear to be planning to tank. With the NFC now clearly weaker than the AFC, this might mean a reasonably high finish relative to the other NFC teams and a playoff spot. Of course, injuries and other unexpected factors will affect everything, but, ignoring that, at this point a decent season seems a realistic possibility for the Seahawks, and the chances are likely a little better than 50-50 that they'll make the playoffs in the NFC. For what it's worth (probably not much at this point), FanDuel places the Seahawks' chances to make the playoffs at 54.95%.

The real strength in the NFL now lies in the AFC, with the Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, Ravens, and possibly the Jets, Dolphins, and Chargers ahead of most NFC teams. In the NFC, the Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys are the class of the conference.

[South Pender]

With the 2023-24 NFL season opening up tomorrow (Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs), here are some predictions by five writers at Pro Football Talk as to which teams they expect to make the playoffs and the expected order of finish of the playoff teams in each conference.

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootba ... redictions

One big surprise to me in these predictions is that only two of the five writers predict that the Buffalo Bills will make the playoffs in the AFC. Another surprise is how highly the Jacksonville Jaguars are rated. I guess I haven't being paying enough attention to them. As for the Seahawks, four of the five writers predict a playoff finish for them, with rankings in the NFC of 5, 6, or 7.

Predictions this early are pretty much a shot in the dark, but the rankings do give some idea of where the power in each conference lies.

[South Pender]

Boy, what a dismal start to the 2023 season for the Seahawks yesterday. What was supposed to be an improved offense was terrible, particularly in the second half. And what was supposed to be the strength of the defense--the pass defense--was also just terrible. The one part of the defense that had been seen as a weakness was actually not too bad--holding the Rams' rushing offense to 92 total yards (although with 334 yards of passing offense, the Rams didn't really need that much on the ground!). This was just a god-awful effort from the 'Hawks on both sides of the ball and pretty hard to understand. They seemed flat and complacent, thinking perhaps that the 2023 Rams would be a pushover. Pete Carroll has been pretty good over the years at turning things around after bad performances, but things could go from bad to worse next Sunday against a fast-improving Detroit Lions team.

9/12/23 update. Just terrible news for the New York Jets--Aaron Rodgers out for the season with an Achilles tendon tear suffered in the Jets' first drive of the Monday night game. This is just a complete disaster for the team as the Jets traded away several high draft picks to get the 4-time NFL MVP this season. With the other strengths of the team on both sides of the ball, Rodgers was seen as the final piece to get the team to the Super Bowl. Back-up Zach Wilson is just not a very good QB, although he played well enough for the Jets to get the win in OT. Really heart-breaking for the Jets' fans who had sky high expectations for the season. I'd not be surprised to see the Jets look hard around the league for another QB. Carson Wentz? Tom Brady?!!!

[Robbie]

Good Seahawks win in New York to go to 3-1 after the season opener loss.

Great Seahawks defence with 10 sacks and 2 interceptions led by a 97-yard interception TD return by Devon Witherspoon to shut the nail in the coffin when the Giants had a chance to score in the red zone while it was still at 14-3.

Good to see Drew Lock play since obtaining him from the Russell Wilson trade when Geno Smith steppped out for a minor injury (and too outraged as well) and he immediately had an impact with a 51-yard near-TD pass. Had Geno Smith was forced to stay in the sidelines for the entire second half, it would have been good to see Lock play more. And had Lock played magnificent in the second half then come next week it's decision time as to whether it's Lock or Smith who starts. But since Smith recoved and returned, he will still be the starter next week.

[South Pender]

I agree, Robbie. I thought Drew Lock looked pretty good, although he missed a couple of his passes. The guy has a real cannon for an arm and is mobile too. They are lucky to have a QB of his talent as a backup. What made last night more impressive is that the Seahawks have been playing their last three games without both of their starting tackles and other starters missing at times from their O-line, playing at times with four backups on the line. Last night, they lost their two starting guards for most of the game, and yet the O-line held up pretty well, all things considered.

I guess the highlight-reel guy last night was 5th overall draft pick Devon Witherspoon who played in the slot last night because their regular slot corner, Coby Bryant, was out with an injury. I'd like to see Witherspoon on the outside (perhaps at left corner) opposite Riq Woolen when Bryant comes back, but, given his stellar play last night, Pete Carroll may decide to leave him in the slot and go to either Tre Brown or Mike Jackson on the outside opposite Woolen. Whatever is decided, though, I think Witherspoon would probably make the biggest contribution on the outside.

It was too bad about Jamal Adams' concussion. He'll be back, though, particularly with a bye week now to get through the protocol. I think the secondary will be great when he's back, along with Julian Love and Quandre Diggs at safety and Woolen, Witherspoon, and Bryant back together at corner. The pass defense has not been good so far and needs to tighten up. Oddly--given the pre-season fears--the run defense has been very good.

This bye week has come at a good time (although perhaps a little earlier in the season than desirable) to get some starters back for their next game in two weeks in Cincinnati. They should have Charles Cross back at left tackle, and that will help the run game (which has been OK so far). Their starting right tackle, Abe Lucas, will be out a little longer.

So things are looking pretty good at this point for the 'Hawks, but some tough games lie ahead.

Here are the Week 5 NFL Power Rankings from Pro Football Talk:

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootba ... r-rankings

[Robbie]

Hopefully BC Place will never have a fan fight and brawl in the concourse or the stands like there was at the recent Cowboys vs. Chargers Monday Night Football game:



And also in that game, ESPN and the other television networks kept showing this woman again and again on both the jumbotron and in all international television stations. Will she now immediately be an international celebrity like Pamela Anderson?

[Robbie]

Good recovery for the Seahawks with a win over Arizona after the loss in Cincinnati in which they couldn't capitalize all of their red zone opportunities.

However, certainly not a clean 20-10 Seahawks win over the Cardinals with three turnovers which resulted in only 3 points.

[South Pender]

That was an ugly win for the Seahawks, what with the turnovers and other examples of poor play. However, once again, they were playing with 3 backups on the O-line and without their top receiver, and this helps explain why the game wasn't the rout everyone expected. The two rookie receivers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jake Bobo, took up some of the slack in DK Metcalf's absence.

The defense played pretty well, and once again, we were reminded why Devon Witherspoon was the 5th overall pick in the 2023 draft. I think that, as the season goes along, the Seahawks' cornerbacks, Witherspoon, Riq Woolen, and Tre Brown, along with their excellent safeties, Jamal Adams, Julian Love, and Quandre Diggs will round into a top secondary unit. With the trade deadline approaching (Oct. 31), I'd like to see the 'Hawks acquire one more top D-lineman, and if they can get their O-line starters all healthy, I think we'll see better offensive play.

Edit Oct,, 24: The Seahawks have lost their top edge rusher, Uchenna Nwosu, for the season, to a torn pec that will require surgery. This is a serious blow to the defense as Nwosu was also a very good run stopper. His immediate replacement, Darrell Taylor, is a decent pass rusher, but pretty bad against the run. Although there's no word yet on an acquisition, I'd be surprised if Pete Carroll didn't reach out for a proven edge rusher/run stopper before the trade deadline next Tuesday.

Update Oct. 25: Pete Carroll has brought back Frank Clark today to man the spot Uchenna Nwosu played. Clark, who is 30, played his first 4 years with the Seahawks and was very good. He went on to have three Pro Bowl years with the Chiefs and was in on 2 Super Bowls. He played DE in the Kansas City 4-3 defensive scheme, but will shift to OLB edge rusher in the Seahawks' 3-4 alignment. It should be a good fit, as he has been a great pass-rusher in his career and is strong enough to set the edge in run plays. So not much of a drop-off, if any.

[South Pender]

Here's an interesting and entertaining piece about Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll. Pete is considered one of the best head coaches in the NFL (ranked #5 out of the 32 in a recent article) and was hugely successful as a college coach at USC, where, in his 9 years there, he compiled a 97-19 record and lead the Trojans to two national championships. To say that his approach to coaching professional football players is a little unorthodox would be a bit of an understatement! The following should make that clear:

https://theathletic.com/5001932/2023/10 ... -meetings/

[Robbie]

An extremely scary and heartpounding win by the Seahawks over the Browns. After taking quick leads of 14-0 and 17-7 while forcing two turnovers, the Seahawks sounded like it's going to be an easy win after the first quarter. But after Seahawks defence being tricked several times as well as a couple of Geno Smith interceptions, the Browns fought back for a 20-17 lead and could have put the game away had it not been an extremly lucky bounce off of a Seahawks player helmet which led to an interception. Geno Smith made no mistakes in their final offensive possession by scoring one last time since the first quarter for a 24-17 win.

The Seahawks win combined with a 49ers loss has put Seattle in first place in the NFC West. Next week will be a huge challenge as they fly to Baltimore against the 6-2 Ravens.

[South Pender]

An extremely scary and heartpounding win by the Seahawks over the Browns. After taking quick leads of 14-0 and 17-7 while forcing two turnovers, the Seahawks sounded like it's going to be an easy win after the first quarter. But after Seahawks defence being tricked several times as well as a couple of Geno Smith interceptions, the Browns fought back for a 20-17 lead and could have put the game away had it not been an extremly lucky bounce off of a Seahawks player helmet which led to an interception. Geno Smith made no mistakes in their final offensive possession by scoring one last time since the first quarter for a 24-17 win.

The Seahawks win combined with a 49ers loss has put Seattle in first place in the NFC West. Next week will be a huge challenge as they fly to Baltimore against the 6-2 Ravens.

Yeah, it seems that all the Seahawks wins are heartpounding. It would be nice, for a change, for them to build a big lead and add to it as the game went along.

The Browns are a good team--especially on defense--and so yesterday's win should be celebrated, I guess, but the inconsistency on offense is alarming. Geno Smith has not looked that good for much of the season. I'm hoping that they trade for, or otherwise acquire, a top player before the trade deadline tomorrow at 4:00 p.m. ET.

[Robbie]

[ I'm hoping that they trade for, or otherwise acquire, a top player before the trade deadline tomorrow at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Seahawks trade 2 draft picks to NY Giants for star defensive end Leonard Williams.

[South Pender]

[ I'm hoping that they trade for, or otherwise acquire, a top player before the trade deadline tomorrow at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Seahawks trade 2 draft picks to NY Giants for star defensive end Leonard Williams.

Yeah, just saw that, Robbie. They lose a 2nd-round pick in 2024, but with two 3rd-round picks, it's not too much of a sacrifice. Williams is a big, dangerous DE (former 1st-round draft pick) who will really add to the D-line rotation with Dre’mont Jones, Jarran Reed, and Mario Edwards. The Seahawks' D, which has been playing well, will be stronger.

[Robbie]

The Browns are a good team--especially on defense--and so yesterday's win should be celebrated,

The commentators did give a fair amount of positive attention to DE Myles Garrett who made a few key tackles as well as the only Browns' sack. So it looks like the infamous incident from four years ago when he pulled off the helmet of Pittsburgh Steelers QB Mason Rudolph and used it to hit his head is all but forgotten. Despite being fined and suspended for the rest of the season, Garrett was reinstated the following year and there's little mention about that incident. I guess it's because Mason Rudolph wasn't really hurt at all from that brawl, and Rudolph himself was considered partly at fault as he was fined as well.

Geno Smith has not looked that good for much of the season.

Even though Geno Smith has made a few mistakes, he has made several good offensive plays as well and it's for that reason the team is at 5-2 and first in the NFC West. As such, unless Geno Smith gets injured or becomes undisciplined like that isolated incident, it's very unlikely that he will lose his starting job to Drew Lock.

[South Pender]

Geno Smith has not looked that good for much of the season.

Even though Geno Smith has made a few mistakes, he has made several good offensive plays as well and it's for that reason the team is at 5-2 and first in the NFC West. As such, unless Geno Smith gets injured or becomes undisciplined like that isolated incident, it's very unlikely that he will lose his starting job to Drew Lock.

I agree that with Drew Lock, the Seahawks likely wouldn't be 5-2 at this point, and so I don't think Geno Smith is in any danger of losing his starting role. My comments were in response to his performance so far this year compared to that of last season. He does, after all, have a somewhat stronger supporting cast on offense this season than last. However, his QB rating is down to 91.1 so far this season, which is a little below the middle of the pack, whereas last season he finished with a QB rating of 100.9, which is very good and put him near the top of the rankings. His completion %age is slightly down, and his interceptions are up some--6 so far in 7 games (so .86 per game and 5 in the past 3 games) vs. 11 last season in 17 games (so .65 per game). It's not that he's been generally bad--more just that he hasn't returned to last season's form at this point despite improved offensive pieces around him. He needs to play better if the Seahawks are to not only make the playoffs, but advance in them.