Leos vs Riders, Preview and Game Day Thread

[Blitz]

BIG game for our Leos against the Riders at home on Saturday night. Our Leos are coming off a very disappointing loss to the Argos, a team whose quarterback was starting only his second CFL game. The Riders are coming off a big victory, after upsetting the Stampeders and ending their undefeated streak.

However, there are some things going in our Leos favor. Quite often, after a huge upset, there is a let down for that winning team. Lets hope that is the case for the Riders on Saturday night.

Secondly, our Leos have played well at home this season and should be highly motivated, after losing to the Argos and also because our Leos desperately need this victory in order to keep their playoff hopes continuing.

Our Leos are 5-15 since the last time we played the Riders on August 5, 2017. Our Leos were 12-6 in 2016 an were 5-2, going into the game in 2017 and were badly defeated by the Riders by a score of 41-8. A frustrated Wally Buono walked out of the dressing room, handing over the pre-game speech to Rolly Lumbala. It may be only a coincidence, but this Leos team has never regained its mojo.

Our Leos are 3-5 going into this important contest. We were 1-2 with Jennings holding the reins at quarterback. We’re 2-3 with Lulay as our starting quarterback. When Lulay became our starting quarterback in Game 4 of this season, newspaper articles appeared, reminiscing about our 2011 season and speculating with the former MOP back at starting quarterback, our Leos would go on another winning streak, just as we did in that 2011 Grey Cup season.

One could almost see those sports writers pens already poised to write grandiose stories about Wally’s Farewell Tour and having their adjectives ready to describe the scene of confetti raining down on Wally’s head as he once again held the Grey Cup high above his shoulders.

That confetti could still be coming down on our B.C. Lions in November. This team has the talent and experience to do it. Heck, the Argos did it in 2017 with a lot less talent. But first, our Leos need to begin playing consistent football.

Our Leos are 3-5 because they deserve to be 3-5. Its not the occasional penalty or the occasional mental error that are the major causes of our losing record so far. Other teams with winning records have to deal with penalties and occasional mental mistakes too. Our Leos have a 3-5 record because statistically, that is what our record should be.

Our 3-5 Record is a Reflection of Our General Play

We’ve gotten better quarterbacking from Travis Lulay. Quarterback efficiency really is an indicator of an offence’s passing game success or lack thereof. It’s really an indicator of the play of all units in the passing attack – the offensive line, receivers, quarterback, and offensive coordinator and not just the quarterback’s performance. But its useful to compare the play of two quarterbacks on the same team.

Lulay has a 90.6 quarterback efficiency since taking over the starting role compared to Jennings 77.7 quarterback efficiency. While Jennings had a higher passing percentage in his first 3 games (66.7%) than Lulay (62.3%), our passing yardage has improved a lot per game with Lulay and our interception rate is much improved (Jennings interception rate was 4.2 vs Lulay’s 2.3 rate).

But our offence is only averaging 22 points per game with Lulay at quarterback, the same average points per game that we scored with Jennings at quarterback.

So, Why Are We 3-5?

Well, let’s rule out some things. Its not our special teams play. We’re first in punt average and second in net yards per punt. We’re second in the CFL, in terms of punt return average. Its not special team penalties, as we’re the least penalized team in the CFL on special teams.

In terms of team penalties, Edmonton and Saskatchewan have been much more penalized this season and our 73.3 yard per game is similar to Calgary (70 yds. per game). We rank 4th in the CFL in penalty yards.

Its not field position, where when our offence ranks 4th in terms of field position, when starting an offensive drive. Our record is not due to a lack of big plays from our offence, despite the calls for a deep threat receiver to compliment Manny and Burnham. We rank 4th in the CFL in offensive big plays over 20 yards and 4th in terms of success when attempting those big plays.

We’re 3-5 because we’re 7th in the CFL in points scored, averaging 22.3 points per game. We’re 6th in average yards per play and 6th in net offence. We’re 6th in net passing yards and our passing yards have improved a lot since Lulay took over but this is an important stat, which I will come back to – we’re 8th in the CFL in rushing yards.

On defense, we’re 7th on defense in terms of opponents net offence (391.4 yds. per game), as our defense ranks 6th against the run and 7th against the pass.

The problem this season is our general play on offence and our general play on defense. When your offence an average of 22 points per game and gives up 26.5 points per game, its difficult to have a winning record.

Our 3-5 record so far is a reflection of our all around play on both offence and defense.

WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED?

In 2016, our Leos were 12-6 and won the West Semi-Final. We began 2017 with a 5-2 record. Buono’s return to the sidelines as Head Coach begain with a record of 17 wins vs 8 losses over our first 25 games.

Since that time, beginning with that 41-8 loss in Saskatchewan our Lions have won 5 games and lost 15 games and so far, even the return of Travis Lulay this season as our starter has not led us back to a winning record so far.

So, lets have look back at our Leos team in those two different periods of success and failure and examine what has been different.

The key difference on offence has been our rushing attack. In 2016, our Leos led the CFL in rushing yards. Our offensive line in 2016 was comprised of Cody Husband, playing his first season as our center (and he had very limited experience as a starting offensive lineman).

Hunter Steward was playing his first season as an offensive guard. Fabian was our right guard. Olifioye has been switched to left tackle. Antonio Johnson was a rookie starter at right tackle. Tim O’Neil and Levy Adcock played offensive line for a number of games. Jeremiah Johnson was our starting tailback with Anthony Allen inserted for a number of games.

Jonathan Jennings, started all 18 games for us and even with our priority of running the football, he completed 67% of his passes for 5,226 yds and had a 102.1 quarterback efficiency.

In 2017 our rushing attack dropped from being the best in the CFL in 2016 to ranking 5th in the CFL. In 2017, we surprisingly finished 2nd in passing yards, with Jennings being our starter for most of the season, with Travis Lulay starting four of those games and playing very well. But we gave up the most sacks in the league, both Jennings and Lulay threw a lot of interceptions, and we finished 7th in scoring.

Our offensive line was determined to be the major problem, missing Olifioye for 2017, with Fabian struggling, and with Antonio Johnson and Milton as our starting tackles.

This season, with Figuroa and Olifoye as our starting tackles, with a more experienced Cody Husband and Steward, and with Foucault replacing Fabian at right guard, this a huge, talented, and much more experienced offensive line than our 2016 offensive line and we should be running the football more and more successfully.

But we rank 8th in CFL rushing. We’ve gone to a much quicker passing attack using a lot of RPO plays.

To me, it would make more sense to reestablish our offence as a dominant rushing offence. If we were able to have a quarterback efficiency of 102. 1 quarterback efficiency with a first year starter in Jennings in 2016, a dominant running game would keep defenses off balance and give Lulay the time to throw and dissect defenses.

Lulays’ quarterback efficiency, despite being an improvement over Jennings this season is still only 90.6, which ranks 7th amongst CFL starting quarterbacks and his quarterback rating is 6th.

A much-improved running game in the second half of this season is the key to our offensive fortunes.

In comparing our defense from 2016 to 2018, we can see another key to improved success for this season. In 2016 our defense ranked 3rd in points against.

Yet it was not a very talented defense overall. Our defensive line was made up of Alex Bazzie and Micheal Brooks, along with Jabar Westerman, playing out of position at defensive end, Craig Roh playing undersized and out of position at defensive tackle.

In the defensive backfield we lost both T.J. Lee, Stephan Clarke, and Ronnie Yell to season ending injuries. Brandon Stewart struggled at corner. We played rookies Louchez Purifoy, Anthony Gaitor, and Fenner in the defensive backfield.

But we did something very well in 2016 on defense. We tied Calgary for 1st in the CFL in quarterback sacks and we got consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks a lot of the time. We didn’t do that with the talent we now have on our defensive line.

We did that by committee, with linebackers and defensive backs playing an important role in getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. We didn’t lead the league in sacks by just expecting that to happen just from our defensive line.

Two keys to the second half of this season and getting our 5-15 record turned around – our running game and a change to our overall defensive approach to getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

PLAYING THE RIDERS

In order to beat the Riders we have to run the football successfully. If we think we can just use a quick passing RPO attack to negate their pass rush, Jones will have his defense playing our receivers tighter and jumping routes.

If we can run the football successfully, we will give Lulay time to throw and with time, he will find open recievers rather than trying to throw the football quickly into tight windows.

Our defense is facing a Riders offence that ranks 2nd in rushing and dead last in passing. They have less passing yards than even the Montreal Als. Zack Colloras is back at quarterback for Saskatchewan but if we can limit Saskatchewan’s run game, we have our best chance to defend the Riders offence.

WRAP

Our Leos have to get back to what made us most successful in Buono’s first 25 games back as our Head Coach and not continue to do what has hurt us the most over our past 20 games.

We won in 2016, because we played better on offence and defense, with less experience and less talent.

An ever declining number of rushing yards, from 1st in rushing from 2016 to 5th last season to 8th in rushing yard to so far this season...and a defense that led the CFL in sacks in 2018 to 9th last season to an improvement this season so far (6th) but not good enough are the most significant changes from success for 25 games and mostly failure over the past 20 games.

The answer to a change in our fortunes is obvious.

Go Leos!

[JohnnyMusso]

If Lions lose this game, I cannot see them making the playoffs. This is a must win for them, not so much for the Riders.

[Toppy Vann]

Blitz:

The problem this season is our general play on offence and our general play on defense. When your offence an average of 22 points per game and gives up 26.5 points per game, its difficult to have a winning record.

Our 3-5 record so far is a reflection of our all around play on both offence and defense.

With this team it's not just one thing that will fix the what former Lion Marco Inanuzzi says are the "small things" that if changed will produce more wins and a playoff run.

In the above statement from Blitz is "general play" and "all round play" on OFF and DEF.

Does this not suggest some changes that will fire this team up to go on a run? Add personnel that make a difference or simply vary what you're doing as I think Blitz suggests when he said earlier the talent is fine.

Changes to regain running game superiority should free up receivers for the big gains and the YAC yardage - something that Farhan said yesterday Lions receivers aren't getting this year. Lalji says BC hasn't a no. 1 receiver like Geroy Simons. I think it can be done by committee but that works only if the running game is there and use your RB and at times FB for both the run and the pass. I look at this way, Arceneau and Burnham both capable of YAC gains didn't become old (as they're not) overnight. It's the coverage they're getting.

On DEF, look at what the Riders did to the Stamps as they rushed Calgary from positions that they hadn't see before as the coaches dialed up some variation on their basic DEF schemes over their bye week. BC will get similar treatment as it gave the Stamps their first loss.

The Riders came out on fire and defensively dominated proof that players get inspired by innovative thinking when you vary your basic theme of how you attack an offense.

Can Washington do that?

Blitz:

But we rank 8th in CFL rushing. We’ve gone to a much quicker passing attack using a lot of RPO plays.

To me, it would make more sense to reestablish our offence as a dominant rushing offence. If we were able to have a quarterback efficiency of 102. 1 quarterback efficiency with a first year starter in Jennings in 2016, a dominant running game would keep defenses off balance and give Lulay the time to throw and dissect defenses.

Lulays’ quarterback efficiency, despite being an improvement over Jennings this season is still only 90.6, which ranks 7th amongst CFL starting quarterbacks and his quarterback rating is 6th.

A much-improved running game in the second half of this season is the key to our offensive fortunes.

Although not true in actuality the saying is true when it comes to football teams that are struggling to get more W's than L's:

Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.

Fully agree here that the running game is exactly what will remedy some of the Lions problems!

While it's no one thing that will guarantee W's as the Bombers know with the most innovative offense in the CFL including a decent run game where Andrew Harris is critical both rushing and pass receptions, the Lions coaching staff need to do some things differently and now.

[TheLionKing]

Don't share the same optimism that other posters have in this team. We been seeing the same old, same old the past few years. Lions seem incapable of putting in a full 60 minute effort. If it isn't this it's that etc. etc.

[WestCoastJoe]

Thanks for the detailed preview, Blitz.

I expect Jones will have the Riders well prepared.

He finally has Collaros healthy.

The team seems free of any dissension that might be attributed to Duron Carter, resulting in his outright release. They looked solid beating the Stampeders.

As always, Jones will have his defence attacking in a variety of well planned ways.

With our huge talented O Line, and very capable RBs, Johnson and Rainey, one would expect us to be effective running the ball. That could be key to wearing down the Riders' pass rush.

Lulay has seemed a bit desperate as he tries to change the culture of the team. It seems to me a lot of the players have not demonstrated the necessary will to win. It leaks out in various ways. Our record reflects that.

To me Wally looks listless in his pregame talks. The guys are not buying in. They are not fired up. It seems similar to when Wally walked out of the room, delegating the pregame remarks to Rolly. Pregame talks are the culmination of the week of preparation. If the will to win and the confidence are not there prior to game day, words will not change that. The fire has to be there long before game time. But, even if it is quiet determination, it can show. And sometimes its absence can also be seen. We let the Argos game slip away, in a variety of ways, with many contributors. It seemed the overall will to win was not there.

I think we can be effective on offence. Running and passing. Can we protect the quarterback?

Can we be effective on defence? Can we play as we did in the second half versus the Eskimos? Can we call a bold game? Or will we be trying to play it safe? Will we get pressure on Collaros? Will we have good coverage on the receivers, or will it seem they are running free in the space provided by soft zone?

I think STs should be good. The players seem to have bought in to what Reinebold coaches.

We can win. Key game for our season. Will the determination be there? Looking forward to the game.

[VictoriaFan]

I heard to be fully engaged and focused that this week Wally will be wearing a headset....just kidding! I don't see them winning against the Riders, can we play Montreal again?

[Blitz]

Thanks for the detailed preview, Blitz.

I expect Jones will have the Riders well prepared.

He finally has Collaros healthy.

The team seems free of any dissension that might be attributed to Duron Carter, resulting in his outright release. They looked solid beating the Stampeders.

As always, Jones will have his defence attacking in a variety of well planned ways.

With our huge talented O Line, and very capable RBs, Johnson and Rainey, one would expect us to be effective running the ball. That could be key to wearing down the Riders' pass rush.

Lulay has seemed a bit desperate as he tries to change the culture of the team. It seems to me a lot of the players have not demonstrated the necessary will to win. It leaks out in various ways. Our record reflects that.

To me Wally looks listless in his pregame talks. The guys are not buying in. They are not fired up. It seems similar to when Wally walked out of the room, delegating the pregame remarks to Rolly. Pregame talks are the culmination of the week of preparation. If the will to win and the confidence are not there prior to game day, words will not change that. The fire has to be there long before game time. But, even if it is quiet determination, it can show. And sometimes its absence can also be seen. We let the Argos game slip away, in a variety of ways, with many contributors. It seemed the overall will to win was not there.

I think we can be effective on offence. Running and passing. Can we protect the quarterback?

Can we be effective on defence? Can we play as we did in the second half versus the Eskimos? Can we call a bold game? Or will we be trying to play it safe? Will we get pressure on Collaros? Will we have good coverage on the receivers, or will it seem they are running free in the space provided by soft zone?

I think STs should be good. The players seem to have bought in to what Reinebold coaches.

We can win. Key game for our season. Will the determination be there? Looking forward to the game.

I went back and watched our Leos game again this week WCJ. We used a lot of RPO plays against Toronto...the most I've seen in the Lulay starter period of time.

Our offensive philosophy in interesting to watch this season and its different. In the past, we either ran or passed based upon a play that was called in the huddle or by an audible.

This season we are an offence that uses two systems - an RPO offence and a spread offence.

When using RPO plays, the determination to either run or pass is based upon the quarterbacks read after the snap. When we are in the spread, the pass play is predetermined before the snap and we pass block.

The passing philosophy is different when we use RPO plays. Its always run blocking, even if its a pass. Secondly RPO plays are designed to be quick passing plays.

Instead of the quarterback going through progressions, the receiver he throws the football to is determined by the post snap read.

The passing game, with RPO plays is mostly a short passing attack. The pass plays are quick hitters - quick outs, quick slants, stop plays, etc. or they are quick hitch screens, where Lulay reads the defense post snap fakes to Johnson and throws the hitch screen.

If we want a pass play giving Lulay options to throw deeper, we usually go to a predetemined pass play using the spread offence. Lulay has hit almost all his deep patterns to Manny and Burnham and others this season coming off predetermined pass plays with pass blocking.

So, we've morphed from a vertical pass offence with a priority of a deep intermediate attack to a priority of using a short passing attack most of the time.

Overall, using RPO plays makes sense. Instead of a predetermined run play, the quarterback reads the defense post snap, based upon his read. Defenses can look very different before the snap of the football and the split second after the football is snapped.

However, they are also challenging for a quarterback because he has no idea before the snap of the football whether he is handing off the football or passing the football.

The old zone read play meant the quarterback only made the decision to hand the football off to his tailback or run the football himself, based upon a post snap read. The run pass option play means the quarterback not only decides whether to hand the football off or pass it but he also has to make a very accurate pass to a receiver very quickly.

I can see why Jennings struggled with RPO plays. Lulay reads a defense much quicker, post snap, and gets it out of his hands quickly, which is very necessary, due to the run blocking used and the type of pass patterns that are utilized. Still, when we use RPO plays, this is a new type of offensive style of play for him too.

One of the challenges that I see for RPO plays is that we are using this style for essentially two down football. RPO offences came out of the U.S. with its 3 down football game, which makes a short passing game more favorable. It takes a higher level of execution for an offence to drive the field using RPO plays because the offence must usually execute a higher number of plays successfully.

Overall, I really like Jarious Jackson's offence. I really like the diversity he uses for both the run game and the pass game. I really like his motion and misdirection. I love his screen and draw game - something I have hoped to see for a very long time.

I just wish we used less RPO plays. RPO plays were popular at the college level for a number of seasons, with a number of NFL teams introducing them last season. When Philadelphia beat the Patriots using RPO, they became the flavor of the day this off-season.

But the Eagles, like most NFL teams that used them last season, only used them about 20% of the time or less. We're in an RPO offence much, much more than that.

Considering that the run game should work best when a decision is made post snap that its favorable to run the football, our run average this season ranks 6th in average gain per rush. Since we are deciding post snap, when its more favorable to pass the football, one would think that we would have a higher completion rate for short pass type of plays than 64%, which ranks 6th in the CFL.

Being in so much RPO also does not favor our best receivers strengths. Manny and Burnham are outstanding intermediate and deep intermediate receivers and Shaq Johnson is a deep intermediate and deep threat but when we use RPO plays that are quick passes, they don't get the opportunity to use those strengths.

Another interesting aspect is our blocking, when using RPO. Blocking the same way for a run play or a pass play does not favor either. The offensive lineman does not have any idea pre-snap. Run blocking to open a hole is very different than blocking using a run play style of blocking to pass protect.

Perhaps, the more that we use RPO plays as this season progresses, we will continue to get better and better at executing them. Or perhaps we will use less of them and keep the ones that work best.

The big worry that I have is that teams that like to use short passing attacks like Ottawa and Saskatchewn often are teams that can put up a lot of offensive yards but often don't score a ton of points.

I like that we are trying new things and doing some new things well on offence. I just hope we can get to the best balance for success.

[Blitz]

Chris Jones often gets mocked, from his golf shirt buttoned right up to his neck to his questionable decisions in a variety of areas from personnel to strategy.

But he took over a dismal Rider team and in his second season the Ridrers made the playoffs last year, won the East Semi-Final, and were one third down play away from playing in the Grey Cup game.

We didn't even make the playoffs last year. This season, Jones Riders have won two more games than our Leos and are the only team to beat Calgary.

Which means he is not an idiot. He is also a very bright guy when it comes to defense and he has proven that over and over again, as he has coordinated defenses to four Grey Cup championships in Montreal, Toronto, Calgary, and Edmonton.

Which also means that we need a very good offensive game plan for this game.

[B.C.FAN]

Ricky Collins Jr. returns to the starting lineup this week at WR in place of the injured Shaq Johnson. LU had speculated that Claudell Louis would be replaced by Junior Luke for ratio reasons but Louis is still listed as the starter at nose tackle.

The Lions are starting four nationals on offence and three on defence. Louis or another international will have to come off whenever backup internationals Dyshawn Davis or Ivan McLennan come in. Micah Awe is also listed as a backup international linebacker but is expected to be scratched.

[SammyGreene]

Our Leos are 5-15 since the last time we played the Riders on August 5, 2017.

More terrific analysis as usual Blitz. Well done! That record since the last Riders visit to BC Place is horrendous to say the least and 20 games is more than just a bad trend. I was foolish enough in thinking the team had turned the corner after the Edmonton win only for reality to return last week in Toronto.

Buono's often animated discussions on the sidelines with assistant coaches and players, especially Lulay, is not the Wally we saw a decade ago. It's the sign of frustration and more significantly the level of urgency as he watches his final season look a whole lot like 2017.

Expecting the Riders to win tomorrow night which is probably a good thing to have low expectations. They seem poised to do what they did a year ago and go on a big run in the 2nd half of the season.

I too have a ton of respect for Chris Jones and he doesn't have a Reilly, Mitchell or even a Lulay playing QB for him. Maybe Collaros can return to his 2015 form. Heck he turned AC Leonard into a defensive lineman the Lions would love to have when he played receiver here!

[Hambone]

If Lions lose this game, I cannot see them making the playoffs. This is a must win for them, not so much for the Riders.

A loss would make for a big uphill battle for sure, a hole they may not be able to dig themselves out of. Make no mistake it's also a very critical game for the Riders. A loss and they are tied for last with BC at 4-5 and trailing in the season series. A BC win and the CFL West bunches up as there would be only 4 points separating 2nd and 5th with BC and Sask having a game in hand on Edmonton and Winnipeg. And of course after this weekend BC gets to sit back and watch the other 4 battle it out in what could be the most pivotal LDC/Rematch/Banjo Bowl series in recent memory.

Between now and the end of Week 13:
BC at 3-5 has SSK, bye, OTT.
SSK has BC, WPG, WPG
WPG has CGY, SSK, SSK,
EDM has CGY, CGY
CGY has WPG, EDM, EDM

[SammyGreene]

Am I missing something here? The Lions finally have a deep threat in Collins?
24 catches for 254 yards so an average of about 10.5 yards per catch? If he is a proven deep threat then the Lions sure haven't taken advantage of it.

https://www.cfl.ca/2018/08/24/morris-co ... os-needed/

[B.C.FAN]

Am I missing something here? The Lions finally have a deep threat in Collins?
24 catches for 254 yards so an average of about 10.5 yards per catch? If he is a proven deep threat then the Lions sure haven't taken advantage of it.

https://www.cfl.ca/2018/08/24/morris-co ... os-needed/

I thought that article was a bit puzzling. The Lions' deep threat receivers, ranked by 30-yard catches this year, are:

Manny Arceneaux 7
Bryan Burnham 4
Ricky Collins 2
Kevin Elliott 2
Shaq Johnson 1
Chris Rainey 1
Cory Watson 1

Collins, Elliott, Johnson and Rainey all have potential to make big plays but they're not consistent deep threats.

[David]

Is it just me or are some of Travis's handoffs to Jeremiah in the backfield really slow developing? Every time I can count to nearly three steamboats before JJ takes the ball, I know the play is going to get blown up, as it's telegraphed to the defence.


DH

[Blitz]

Is it just me or are some of Travis's handoffs to Jeremiah in the backfield really slow developing? Every time I can count to nearly three steamboats before JJ takes the ball, I know the play is going to get blown up, as it's telegraphed to the defence.

DH

No, you're not missing something David.

On RPO plays, Lulay has to go to his read post-snap to determine if he is going to hand it off or pass. That read can't be done is a split second.

Therefore, the decison as to whether to hand off or pass needs a little more time.