Eskimos vs. Lions Game Thread

[TheLionKing]

Rematch

Losing team generally have the advantage in a back to back. Will the Lions buck the trend and sweep the Eskimos

[MexicoLionFan]

Chaps was not particualarly inventive or effective until the 3rd quarter last week, he has to be more effective tonight...Stubler never shows anything in the first of home and home games...he will tonight.

Lulay put the team on his shoulders in the 3rd quarter, on the road, in a rain storm, I have ZERO doubt that he won't excel tonight. Lions win in a dominating performance.

[David]

Let's be mindful of the fact the Esks will be motivated by revenge following a rather humiliating defeat at home, will have Fred Stamps back on O, Marcus Howard on D, and generally have had success lately at BC Place - not many teams can say that.


DH

[MexicoLionFan]

Lions win big...

[Blitz]

Its no longer the Evil Empire but instead its the Eskimo Way or the Kavis Reed/EdHhervey Way. There is no Tillman this season to heap all the blame on as the Eskimo's try to even up on back to back games agaisnt our Leos early this season.

Our defense has led the way for two of our wins as our offence has been average and our special team return game has been lousy. Lets have a closer look:

DEFENCE

Our defense leads the league in a number of categories so far. We've given up the fewest first downs and the least net offence. We've also given up the least points in the league and we're best against the pass in both yardage and net yards per pass (6.2 yds.)

However , we're last in the league in quarterback sacks, having only recorded 4 sacks so far this season. Last week we hit Reilly 12 times and pressured him 16 times. Hopefully this week we won't allow him to escape so often as we did last week and we can get him to the ground with the football in his hands.

Pressure on a quarterback who has only 7 CFL starts is a key to this game. Paying special attention to Fred Stamps, who leads the Edmonton offence in receiving, even with missing a game will be important. Hugh Charles is a back who can hurt you. Making the Eskimos ofence as one dimensional as possible will be important.

OFFENCE

Our offence may have two receivers in the Top 10 in Arsenault and Moore but its been average at best. Harris is 10th in combined yds so far this season and 4th in rushing. We need to make him more of an integral part of our offence. We did that more last game and need to contiunue it.

Lulay is 5th in quarterback efficiency and our offence is 5th in points scored and 5th in average yds per game. We're only 6th in net passing. The positive is that we are 2nd in net rushing, mainly due to Lulay's rushing yds (7th in the league) combined with Harris carrying the footballl.

The combination of excellent pass blocking, including the work of Matt Norman, Kirby Fabian, Patrick Kabongo in complimenting our offensive tackles and Lulay's mobility has meant time to throw and giving up only 4 sacks so far to lead the league in that category.

This is a game in whcih our offence needs to step up and play more consistent football.

SPECIAL TEAMS

We're last in the league in punt and kick return yardage and average gain. 'Chuck' needs to get this corrected in a hurry. Tim Brown steps back into the lineup and will be motivated but he also needs blocks. McCallum will combine with O'Neil in the kck game tnite. The dual kicker role sgives us a one-two punch.

A positive in a mediocre special teams game so far this season is Lumbala leading the league in downfield special teams tackles.

WRAP

Hopefully we can make Kavis Reed sulk, pout, and bite his lip again with a big victory on the fast track at B.C. Place. After last weeks downpour is going to be a warm night for football. It should be an exciting battle. Both teams have great speed in their lineups.

[Rammer]

I am not sold on the dual K/P role, it costs the Lions a roster spot. That said, it is a bit of a positive conundrum in that while in play, we shouldn't have to face losing a K/P and have to toss in the next man standing for the remainder of the game. However most importantly, it at least showcases our riches, and also gives the Lions an expansion draft eligible option, should the Lions not trade one of the K/P in advance of that date.

As for the game, the Lions will have to rely upon their D as per usual, it is the backbone to the Lions recent success and as it goes, so do the W/L. We have seen glimpses of the Lions O potential, and it would be nice to see a full 60 minutes from them, even though they always seem to have to recover the lost yardage from the deplorable ST yardage so far this season.

I expect the D to give up more yardage this game than last, partly due to the conditions being changed, but mostly due to playing the same team as it lends to that when you pick up the W in the first game. Also, while Edmonton didn't get on the scoreboard much last game, I place that mostly on game situation, and it is unlikely to unfold in similar fashion. Finally add Stamps into the mix, he seems to find openings in the Lions D and usually for large gains.

ST's have been a letdown to say the least, which makes it a work in progress and hopefully as the season moves along, the ST play will improve. Honestly it can hardly get any worse production wise, but is nowhere near the point of last season, when it combined with out D could control the field position on any given night.

Offensively, getting the running game going will help tire out the Esks D, and an early push could demoralize the Esks who will no doubt come out ramped up to the max. If the O gets going early, this could become a much easier task in winning the back to back, a rare feat in the CFL.

[Lionheart]

Cow Bell??

Naw.. we need more consequences!

Just win baby

[Lionheart]

Cow Bell??

Naw.. we need more consequences!

Just win baby

[notahomer]

I forgot Gore's coming back.... Yah, the Esks star reciever Stamps is back but one of our top guys is returning too. Problem is I think they lost more with Stamps out of the lineup that we lost with Gore (and that is meant in no way to disrespect Gore). PJ can fill in. The stampsless Eskimos seemed lost in the mail.

I hope its a good close hard fought game. Hope to see another dominating defence by our boys in orange. Hoping to croon to 'Sweet Caroline'. Roof off on a beautiful July Saturday evening. I think the Lions win a close one.....

[South Pender]

Rematch

Losing team generally have the advantage in a back to back.

Is that right? Seems as though it should be about 50-50. Any data on that?

[B.C.FAN]

Rematch

Losing team generally have the advantage in a back to back.

Is that right? Seems as though it should be about 50-50. Any data on that?

It's not a big advantage for the losing teams. According to the league's weekly Game Notes posted at bclions.com, losing teams have a 57% chance of winning the second game of a back-to-back set.

Since 2007 across the CFL 22 of the 51 back-to-back sets completed as of now resulted in a sweep (43%) while the
other 29 (57%) ended up with each team winning one game splitting the pair.

I imagine the Esks' chances are lower than that because they lost the home end of the back-to-back set and must win on the road to split, but I haven't seen data on that.

More Game Notes data: The Lions have split 60% of their 10 back-to-back series since 2007, sweeping the other 40%. The Esks have split 50% of their six series, being swept the other 50%.

The Lions record in back-to-back sets since 2007 has been excellent sweeping Toronto in
2011, Winnipeg and Saskatchewan in 2008, and Edmonton in 2007. They split the other six sets since 2007. For Edmonton they were
swept in 2012, 2010 and 2009 by Calgary, but split the other three since 2009. They will need to win this week to avoid another.

[Rammer]

I would have thought that the back to back was a higher split percentage than 57%. I have to think that it is lower due to the differences between the clubs records, so if we eliminated the games with a large margin in the win/loss column between the two teams, it may prove to be a larger percentage. So if you eliminated the Montreal vs Hamilton types, or Montreal vs Winnipeg back to backs over the course of the results, it would be higher. Of course, that would be relevant in any faction. But lets say that there were more back to back games with a David and Goliath type scenario going into the series, that would skew the numbers. Not sure on that is the case, but I am going to expect that is partially the reasoning for the numbers to be closer than I suspected.

[WestCoastJoe]

Without getting into any kind of statistical analysis, just gut feeling, I would think that 57-43, favouring a win in game 2 by the loser of game 1 is significant.

Aside from the statistics, it seems to me that motivation, relatively even talent throughout the CFL, and athletic pride play large roles in the difficulty of winning both ends of back to back games.

[PigSkin_53]

Rematch

Losing team generally have the advantage in a back to back. Will the Lions buck the trend and sweep the Eskimos

Beg to differ here TLK but I feel our Leos are getting better with every passing week...

If our guys could get 17 points out of last week in monsoon conditions in Edmonton, then I say they are good foe 28 points at home tonight

Anyway keep the faith Bro, give it to me and I'll keep it with mine!

[1greatmysticbushape]

is Bighill injured?