Lionbackers.com

ed_lunsford wrote:If this is the official make a prediction effort:

11-7, I do think we will have a slow start, but I also think Printers makes some positive things happen on the field.

Points for..396

Points allowed...328

can you remember the last time thisteam scored less than 400 points? I bet they didnt do it with more than 9 wins. Are you saying we will have the best defense in the league by far??

1998 and 1980. Just under 400 with 8 and 9 win seasons.

12 -- 6 510 points

Whisperin' Jimmy wrote:

sj-roc wrote:

Whisperin' Jimmy wrote:...a tie is even more improbable this year with the 'must-go-for-two' rule.

I would disagree. It's on both teams to convert (or fail to convert) their 2pt attempts. I'd have to believe an even exchange, whether it's six or eight — and a sustained tie — is equally as likely as the combined chances of 8-6 or 6-8 outcomes to determine a winner.

Hmmmm.... I thought the whole point of the rule change was to make a result more likely. Let us presume the percentage of missed 2-point conversions is 50% (a figure which I just this very moment made up). The percentage of missed converts is, conservatively, 0%. So it seems to me this has to make an even exchange less likely.

Ok, I thought about this some more and if you simplify OT to a convert contest — which is basically how we're looking at it — then it looks like you're right. Let's say the probability of a successful convert (1 or 2pt) is x, then in a one round convert contest, the probability of a winner emerging is P = 2x(1-x). For a 1pt convert, x is about 0.99, and then P is about 0.02, or a 2% chance. For a 2pter, x is much less; but even if it's as high as 0.9, then P is still 18%, nearly ten times greater. It's only in the case where x=0.5 (i.e. all convert attempts having both outcomes equally likely), that ties don't become less likely for compulsory 2pt attempts and that was my initial thought process.

I think how it actually plays out on the field will be more interesting since the above argument makes simplifying assumptions that aren't necessarily true and would only apply on average anyway. There could be plenty of noise in a small data set of 81 games, especially when all the feet get stomping at Empire.

I'm hoping lions return to '06 form 13-5 550 points.

Eight wins ten losses for a total of 404 points on the season David.

11-7 with 503 points.

10-8
499

sj-roc wrote:Let's say the probability of a successful convert (1 or 2pt) is x, then in a one round convert contest, the probability of a winner emerging is P = 2x(1-x)....

I'm sure you're right, but I stopped reading right there. I was a liberal arts major, dammit.

(I notice the Riders / Als game saw three of four 2-points converts successful. However, I can't believe teams will continue at that pace.)

Whisperin' Jimmy wrote:

sj-roc wrote:Let's say the probability of a successful convert (1 or 2pt) is x, then in a one round convert contest, the probability of a winner emerging is P = 2x(1-x)....

I'm sure you're right, but I stopped reading right there. I was a liberal arts major, dammit.

(I notice the Riders / Als game saw three of four 2-points converts successful. However, I can't believe teams will continue at that pace.)

Actually it was 2 of 2 2-point converts being successful, the Riders didn't need to line up for the extra two after jumping ahead on the TD with 6 points.

Rammer wrote:Actually it was 2 of 2 2-point converts being successful, the Riders didn't need to line up for the extra two after jumping ahead on the TD with 6 points.

Right you are. Must have been the Canada Day libations playing tricks with my memory!

Whisperin' Jimmy wrote:

sj-roc wrote:Let's say the probability of a successful convert (1 or 2pt) is x, then in a one round convert contest, the probability of a winner emerging is P = 2x(1-x)....

I'm sure you're right, but I stopped reading right there. I was a liberal arts major, dammit.

(I notice the Riders / Als game saw [2 of 2] 2-points converts successful. However, I can't believe teams will continue at that pace.)

Probability is indeed a notoriously nebulous subject, even among the science crowd. Check out the Monty Hall Problem sometime if you really want a braintwister!

And true, one game is not enough to draw a firm conclusion. Need at least a full season, maybe more if only a few OT's happen.

10-8 501 pts scored

This is a tough one.

There are some great positives, plus still some negatives. The Lions are still trending downward.

I'm leaning 10-8, 517

9-9 at the best

Lionheart wrote:This is a tough one.

There are some great positives, plus still some negatives. The Lions are still trending downward.

I'm leaning 10-8, 517

Lions were 8 - 10 last season, "trending downward" would lead to a less successful record, correct?