2016 U.S. Presidential Election Thread

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Who do you want to win the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election?

Poll ended at Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:20 am

Hillary Clinton (Democratic / Running mate: Tim Kaine)
3
60%
Donald Trump (Republican / Running mate: Mike Pence)
2
40%
 
Total votes: 5
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Sir Purrcival
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Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:40 am

cromartie wrote:It's the economy, stupid. It's always the economy.

Consider the following:

Only 7% of counties in the US have reached pre 2008 economic crash levels of employment.

The Rust Belt has lost roughly 800,000 manufacturing jobs since 1995.

Of new businesses started between 2010 and 2014, over half of them came from just 20 counties, 16 of which voted Democratic, in six states, four of which went Democratic and one is gradually turning blue.

One of the more prescient statements made last night was about the bright line in the current American economy. If you have a college degree, particularly if you're in a technology or professional field, you're above that bright line and life is pretty good. I am, and it is.

But if you aren't, the transformation that has taken place in the economy scares the hell out of you and rightfully so. It's a transformation akin to the industrialization of the country around the turn of the 20th century. Fortunately, we came out of that with Teddy Roosevelt. This time, Trump.

And when you view it within that context, a simplified anti-trade, anti-immigrant, anti-globalization message plays very, very well, whether the solutions contained with it (if there are any) are actually feasible or not.

You can wring your hands about sexism, racism, bigotry, voter apathy, naivety, lost opportunity..whatever. You can but/but/but all you want, but you're wasting your time. Those are all cultural manifests of life below that bright line and the economic tenuousness, real and perceived, of living beneath it. And trust me on this one, if you grow up with it, you never outgrow it.

But it's the economy, and whomever has the simplest most effective message about the economy wins. That was Trump.

There were two overarching messages here:

"I know what's causing your economic ills and I'll do something to stop them."

versus

"Please, he's crazy and unqualified to be President."

And the response from a plurality of voters in key states was "he may be crazy, but at least he understands what we're going through."

And things are bad enough, or are at least perceived to be bad enough, outside of high density urban areas below that bright line that brought about the results we saw last night.
I really hope you aren't calling me stupid.

Jobs is certainly an issue. People are hoping to turn back the clock to the 1960's when you could have a job at the local plant or mine for good pay and your son or daughter could too. Then all those illegals started coming and undercutting the wages, all those darn foreign country's started flooding the markets with cheap mass produced goods that local manufacturers couldn't match, those damn environmentalists with all their regulations....and so the rhetoric goes. They drank the cool aid and at the same time said that "we don't care how awful the guy is, we just want our American Dream". There is no turning back the clock. Those manufacturing jobs that have gone will likely stay where they are because the workforce's are cheaper, more efficient and more easy to deal with. If there are tariffs, they will just pay them and pass the cost along to the end consumers. Those rust belt voters are going to lose either way as the cost of some of those products rise accordingly. They aren't going to like it either if fracking contaminates their ground water or causes earthquakes. We have seen similar issues here with jobs going overseas, to Mexico, China and even the US.

My biggest fear however is the Supreme court. With the one vacancy they are ready to fill and 3 other SC judges over 80, it is possible that the legal compass of the country is going to swing very right and may dominate the landscape for the next 20-30 years.

There are a lot of fearful people in the US tonight. The demonstrations across the nation are unprecedented. I'm sure they will lose steam after a bit until Trump starts to do some of the things he has proposed. Then they will likely flair up again. And if he doesn't follow through, then his base will be pissed.
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CardiacKid
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Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:24 pm

Sir Purrcival wrote:Don't be surprised if those cases suddenly and mysteriously go away. There is no way that a President is ever going to see the inside of a courtroom. His supposed audit is probably going away too.
Well, there are currently 75 legal actions underway that involve Trump. Not waiting in a queue, not being threatened but actually under way.....75 in the legal system. Anyone care to keep tabs on how many Trump litigants wind up floating face down in a ditch somewhere?

I think David Frum (an entrenched Republican) is right on the money when he says a Trump presidency is just going to limp from crisis to crisis.....

Rudy Guiliani as Attorney-General? Christ.... Newt Gingrich as Secretary of State? Good lord....

I think we just witnessed the last general election in US history.

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WestCoastJoe
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Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:32 pm

Trump owns it. He has the Presidency, the Senate and Congress. No one else to blame.

I think the amount of criticism he faces will shock him. He has no viable policies. The Wall? Not likely, and not paid by Mexico in any case. Mass deportations? Not likely. Lock up Hillary? Nope.

Increased spending on infrastructure with lower taxes? LOL Blow the budget. Negotiate to reduce payments on loans? Nope.

Renegotiate NAFTA? I doubt it.

Drop NATO? I think not.

His extreme supporters are going to be very disappointed in him. He will seem like all the politicians who have gone before him, compromised by practicality.

He is used to a free schedule. Random. Short attention span. He is going to suffer in the office. He will make bad personnel decisions, bringing countless problems. Scandals will follow the likes of Giuliani, Gingrich and Christie. His legal troubles might not miraculously disappear while he is trying to protect himself with the cloak of the Presidency.

I think he will hate the day to day job of being President. He is in the klieg lights. Every move, every decision, every facial expression is scrutinized. He does not like serving. He has never had an 8 to 5 job, let alone 24/7.

Does he have any idea how to address the protesters? I doubt it.

He will no doubt lose the popular vote to Hillary.

Congress will not jump to his every wish. He has enemies there.

I would not be surprised if he develops health issues. I would not be surprised if he desperately wants to leave office before his term is up.

He will hate the disrespect he gets around the world, even if the Heads of State make nice to his face.

He owns it. If he makes good, good for him and the world.

He made the sale, the biggest sale of his life. He sold the sizzle, not the steak. Will his customers, those that voted for him, be happy? I don't think so.

I have eased my angst about the entire electoral process. :thup:

Plus he just might not be as crazy as he oftentimes sounds. I do believe, however, that he is racist, misogynist, mean-spirited, cheap, a bully, something of a sexual predator, and a coward. He is a risk taker, for better or worse. He dodged personal bankruptcy through circumstances, not through planning. He has stiffed countless workers and contractors. A truly vile character.

A pox on both of their houses. Hillary, IMO a good woman, with years of service, was a very poor candidate. Too much stupid baggage (stupid emails, stupid money from Wall Street speeches, stupid image of her foundation, an altogether too easy target for criticism and even lies that many believe). Strident, strained speaking voice. No feel for reading the customers (a Trump strength). She might have made a good President.

Just IMO, of course ...

A Canadian feeling lucky to be born here and to live here in Canada. We don't make wars. We send peace keepers. :thup:
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cromartie
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Thu Nov 10, 2016 9:52 pm

Sir Purrcival wrote:
I really hope you aren't calling me stupid.
Sorry. That's a quote from James Carville, who helped Bill Clinton get elected in 1992. That was the mantra of the campaign. I forget that not everyone is old enough to remember that.

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cromartie
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Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:19 pm

Here's my 10 minute American history lesson for those of you who may be interested in this sort of thing.

By the end of the 1960s, the Democratic Party had gone from being a rump party in power to a party that, federally, had lost the narrative plot. By the time Reagan ascended to the Presidency in 1980, the Democrats, while holding seats at the Congressional level had seen their elective power greatly diminished. This didn't improve as the 1980s progressed.

From this came the DLC, and with the DLC came the rise in influence of southern Democratic politicians, most notably Al Gore, Bill Clinton, Chuck Robb and Dick Gephardt. The only bit of cribbing I'm going to do from Wikipedia is to quote the following, because it's going to matter later:
It is the opinion of the DLC that economic populism is not politically viable...
With the ascendancy of the DLC came the ascendancy of neo-liberalism, the center of which is the idea that free trade is better for the economy.

And so, when Bill Clinton won the presidency in 1992, we very quickly got NAFTA and, eventually, MFN status for China. These had serious, detrimental lasting impacts to portions of the country, and those portions of the country took one look at the last viable DLC candidate for president and decided they'd rather have a populist demagogue instead.

What can we learn?

Neoliberalism is finished. And now that it's finished, countries can react in one of two ways; they can either elect someone who ostensibly is a far right demagogue ala Trump, or they can elect a socialist with a plan to fix what has been lost, someone like Bernie Sanders who can deliver a coherent message. Economic populism, either inclusive or exclusive, is not only politically viable, it is literally the only way forward for first world economies that have been significantly negatively impacted by neoliberalism.

This was not an endorsement of movement conservatism. People do not want smaller government in the American sense. So that's something to hang one's hat on. I believe that movement conservatism is dead too, outside of the most backward parts of the deep south.

As a post script, having spent some time in India, I've seen the flip side of neoliberalism, which is hundreds of millions of people lifted from abject poverty to something resembling lower middle class. Think about this; every time you contact a call center in India you're talking to someone who would otherwise be living off the land in abject poverty. That person has at least the trappings of lower middle class life; a cell phone, a roof over their head and a modicum of self respect and access to medicine and food that the old economic order wouldn't have given them.

But was that worth systematically disassembling the economic engine of the US for? Clearly the American electorate doesn't think that. And most of the first world doesn't either.

Interesting times, my friend.

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Robbie
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Sun Nov 13, 2016 7:50 pm

All the anti-Trump Americans mention about moving to Canada now. I wonder if they are really serious. My belief is NO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5Ii0DXSNvA
祝加拿大加式足球聯賽不列颠哥伦比亚卑詩雄獅隊今年贏格雷杯冠軍。此外祝溫哥華加人隊贏總統獎座·卡雲斯·甘保杯·史丹利盃。還每年祝溫哥華白頭浪隊贏美國足球大联盟杯。不要忘記每年祝溫哥華巨人贏西部冰球聯盟冠軍。

改建後的卑詩體育館於二十十一年九月三十日重新對外開放,首場體育活動為同日舉行的加拿大足球聯賽賽事,由主場的卑詩雄獅隊以三十三比二十四擊敗愛民頓愛斯基摩人隊。

祝你狗年行大運。

恭喜西雅图海鹰直到第四十八屆超級盃最終四十三比八大勝曾拿下兩次超級盃冠軍的丹佛野馬拿下隊史第一個超級盃冠軍。

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Sir Purrcival
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Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:37 pm

So, it has always been somewhat known that if there was a province in this country that wanted to be more like the US, that province would likely be Alberta. However, what is in the news today I find completely repugnant, unoriginal and frankly just a pathetic example of just how moronic some people are.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/ ... -1.3880911

The people of that province should be ashamed tonight. A few months ago, it was the "Big Country' Oilmans Association" that seemed to think it was okay to use her image as a target and now this. My mother was from Alberta and my brother currently lives there so it isn't like I don't have ties to the province. Most of my family relations still reside there. I feel nothing but shame about this and the sad part is that I'm pretty sure that a whole lot of them just won't "get it". Much like too many of our neighbours just didn't "get it" either.
Tell me how long must a fan be strong? Ans. Always.

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KnowItAll
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Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:08 am

I think unfortunately that with the election of trump, that many more like minded people will feel free to speak up, so to speak.
Every day that passes is one you can't get back

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WestCoastJoe
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Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:34 am

Sir Purrcival wrote:So, it has always been somewhat known that if there was a province in this country that wanted to be more like the US, that province would likely be Alberta. However, what is in the news today I find completely repugnant, unoriginal and frankly just a pathetic example of just how moronic some people are.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/ ... -1.3880911

The people of that province should be ashamed tonight. A few months ago, it was the "Big Country' Oilmans Association" that seemed to think it was okay to use her image as a target and now this. My mother was from Alberta and my brother currently lives there so it isn't like I don't have ties to the province. Most of my family relations still reside there. I feel nothing but shame about this and the sad part is that I'm pretty sure that a whole lot of them just won't "get it". Much like too many of our neighbours just didn't "get it" either.
Kevin O'Leary, Donald Trump wannabe, is considering running in Canada. God forbid. It is tough to be an optimist about the future of humanity these days.
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John Madden's Team Policies: Be on time. Pay attention. Play like hell on game day.

Jimmy Johnson's Game Keys: Protect the ball. Make plays.

Walter Payton's Advice to Kids: Play hard. Play fair. Have fun.

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Robbie
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Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:07 pm

It is inauguration day as America welcomes Donald Trump as the 45th U.S. President. Certainly the start of an era and let's keep our fingers crossed that his reign and legacy will be a good one for Americans and everyone else for that matter as all countries have a direct effect by the USA.
祝加拿大加式足球聯賽不列颠哥伦比亚卑詩雄獅隊今年贏格雷杯冠軍。此外祝溫哥華加人隊贏總統獎座·卡雲斯·甘保杯·史丹利盃。還每年祝溫哥華白頭浪隊贏美國足球大联盟杯。不要忘記每年祝溫哥華巨人贏西部冰球聯盟冠軍。

改建後的卑詩體育館於二十十一年九月三十日重新對外開放,首場體育活動為同日舉行的加拿大足球聯賽賽事,由主場的卑詩雄獅隊以三十三比二十四擊敗愛民頓愛斯基摩人隊。

祝你狗年行大運。

恭喜西雅图海鹰直到第四十八屆超級盃最終四十三比八大勝曾拿下兩次超級盃冠軍的丹佛野馬拿下隊史第一個超級盃冠軍。

TheLionKing
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Fri Jan 20, 2017 7:01 pm

I think "term" or "tenure" might be a better word than "reign" although I'm sure Trump would love to reign the US

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KnowItAll
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Fri Jan 20, 2017 7:54 pm

TheLionKing wrote:I think "term" or "tenure" might be a better word than "reign" although I'm sure Trump would love to reign the US
truth is, he will Ruin the u.s.
Every day that passes is one you can't get back

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Robbie
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Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:38 pm

It looks like President Trump has immediately impact a few days into his term by signing several executive orders.....obviously upsetting many Americans.
祝加拿大加式足球聯賽不列颠哥伦比亚卑詩雄獅隊今年贏格雷杯冠軍。此外祝溫哥華加人隊贏總統獎座·卡雲斯·甘保杯·史丹利盃。還每年祝溫哥華白頭浪隊贏美國足球大联盟杯。不要忘記每年祝溫哥華巨人贏西部冰球聯盟冠軍。

改建後的卑詩體育館於二十十一年九月三十日重新對外開放,首場體育活動為同日舉行的加拿大足球聯賽賽事,由主場的卑詩雄獅隊以三十三比二十四擊敗愛民頓愛斯基摩人隊。

祝你狗年行大運。

恭喜西雅图海鹰直到第四十八屆超級盃最終四十三比八大勝曾拿下兩次超級盃冠軍的丹佛野馬拿下隊史第一個超級盃冠軍。

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Robbie
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Thu Mar 02, 2017 9:08 pm

Did any of you make a point of watching President Donald Trump's Speech to Joint Session Of Congress on Tuesday evening?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S02SNC8xpzU
祝加拿大加式足球聯賽不列颠哥伦比亚卑詩雄獅隊今年贏格雷杯冠軍。此外祝溫哥華加人隊贏總統獎座·卡雲斯·甘保杯·史丹利盃。還每年祝溫哥華白頭浪隊贏美國足球大联盟杯。不要忘記每年祝溫哥華巨人贏西部冰球聯盟冠軍。

改建後的卑詩體育館於二十十一年九月三十日重新對外開放,首場體育活動為同日舉行的加拿大足球聯賽賽事,由主場的卑詩雄獅隊以三十三比二十四擊敗愛民頓愛斯基摩人隊。

祝你狗年行大運。

恭喜西雅图海鹰直到第四十八屆超級盃最終四十三比八大勝曾拿下兩次超級盃冠軍的丹佛野馬拿下隊史第一個超級盃冠軍。

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KnowItAll
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Thu Mar 02, 2017 11:29 pm

Robbie wrote:Did any of you make a point of watching President Donald Trump's Speech to Joint Session Of Congress on Tuesday evening?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S02SNC8xpzU
I am tryin to pretend that drumpf doesn't exist
Every day that passes is one you can't get back

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