2016 season review and 2016/17 offseason

[B.C.FAN]

Here’s the list:
Offence – Anthony Allen, Bryan Burnham, Marco Iannuzzi, Jeremiah Johnson, Rolly Lumbala, Nick Moore, Tim O’Neill, Terrell Sinkfield, Hunter Steward,
Defence – Alex Bazzie, Mich’ael Brooks, Solomon Elimimian, T.J. Lee, Bo Lokombo, Keynan Parker, Craig Roh, Bryant Turner, Jabar Westerman, Ronnie Yell
Special teams – Mike Benson, Adrian Clarke, Neheme Kankolongo, Richie Leone, Paul McCallum

On offence I would resign Burnham, Johnson, Lumbala, Sinkfield and Steward

Defence: Resign Bazzie, Brooks, SolE. Lee, Lokombo, Parker, Turner, Westerman and Yell

Special Teams: Benson, Clarke,

Yes, those would be my priorities too. I liked Nick Moore when healthy but Burnham deserves the big bucks now.

Brooks was a disappointment this year. He missed five games due to injuries and did not seem to be the dominant force in the interior of the line that he was last year. I would like to see the Lions move him back to 3-tech and sign a stud free agent Canadian nose tackle if one is available. Otherwise, perhaps George Uko deserves a shot after spending a year on the practice roster. Westerman was demoted to part-time player this year and his production dropped off too. He may get a better offer and bigger role elsewhere.

Ed Willes weighs in on the future of Elimimian and other Lions free agents, with some ominous words from Wally.

“Depth is critical and the salary cap makes it tough,” Buono said. “When you look at other teams, maybe they have more depth because they have fewer players who make big, big money.

“You look at the Calgary Stampeders. You wonder why they’re good. Well, they’re built on a different format. They have more depth. They have more players they pay full salaries to because they don’t have the high-price guys that take up a lot of the cap.”

And, just in case you missed the point.

“We know the value of Solomon. That’s not going to be the issue. The issue is going to be trying to keep this team as strong as we can.”

Ed Willes: Elimimian has an uncertain future with the Lions

[SammyGreene]

I wouldn't be shocked if Olafioye gets the cut. Lulay will need to renegotiate as it is very clear that Jennings is the undisputed starter.

Sol will be the big question mark. He says he wants to be here but... the money is going to be HUGE elsewhere. He took a "show me" paycut this year. Bighill can step back in without missing a beat.

He might not have missed a beat, but he sure missed a lot of tackles down the stretch.

And why on earth would they cut Olafioye?? I could see the Leos moving to 4 Nationals, but not 5. He's they're best O-lineman and a quarterback life-saver at left tackle IMO.


DH

I know I'm in the minority but I wouldn't be heartbroken if it was the end of Team #100. Both are great linebackers putting up award-winning numbers in Washington's scheme. But we're talking north of $400,000 in cap space for 2 international linebackers. Elliminian is the better of the two but is also now 30 and wants a raise on the $225,000 he made last season. How much higher can Wally seriously go? Bighill is 28 and is likely in the $175,000 range but as David pointed out was regularly missing tackles down the stretch.

I wouldn't mind seeing one of them go, especially if it meant an overhaul of the defence with different personnel and it meant re-upping the likes of Burnham, Johnson and Steward. Maybe find a more suitable role for Lokombo to help the ratio further. He is buried behind both of them and is likely headed elsewhere if nothing changes.

[CardiacKid]

While there is no disputing Solomon's value on the field, I really don't know if there will be a lengthy queue for his services. Of course every team would love to have a player of his stature but the same restrictions that Wally faces with the cap are faced by every other team. And I don't know if that many teams are willing to shake up their cap structure to land Solomon.
The Eskimos have JC Sherritt, the Stamps have a young National stud in Alex Singleton, the Riders have National Henoc Muamba who looked good in his brief stint with the GreenWhites, the Bombers had a very effective trio in Bass, Wild and Leggett and might be hesitant to break that up (plus they have been splashing out cash on FAs like a drunken sailor the last 2 years...time they became more circumspect and solidify what they have) and Montreal has a very fine linebacker in Bear Woods. Ottawa might be in the market for Elimimian but they have Chris Williams as a FA, that will take cash to get him back.

The Tiger Cats defence wasn't the same this year so they would probably consider Solomon and the Argos definitely need to do something, anything to be seen as a team on the upswing. Not really an overwhelming number of suitors.

Plus if Braley is semi-serious about selling this team, he needs to keep Jennings and Elimimian on the books as 'assets' to maintain potential buyers interested IMO. And Wally isn't the kind of manager who makes pie in the sky pronouncements when it comes to signing FAs or potential FAs. He plays his cards close to his chest, is very circumspect and tends to promise very little.

[TheLionKing]

And let's hope Wally keeps a diligent eye on the Rider's PR; perhaps a player or two could be plucked from there.

Quinn van Glyswk

[Blitz]

In reviewing the 2016 season and looking towards next season, a number of changes need to be made if our Leos want to take the next step. The salary cap is always a factor, as is player age.

The focus of this thread will likely be on player signings, free agents, and the CFL draft but I don't believe we can take the next step unless some aspect of our coaching changes.

So I'm going to break my season review and what we need to do in this off-season, in terms of both coaching and players.

COACHING

WALLY BUONO - HEAD COACH

Wally Buono brings both positives and negatives going forward.

On the positive side Buono brought a presence to our Leos this season that was missing under Benevedes and Tedford.

His stature as the longest career HC in the CFL plus being the CFL's winningest coach (he's also the losingest coach but that is never mentioned) demands respect. Buono sets high expectations of his players performance, he can be brutally honest, in terms of where players stand (as Rayn Phillips said, he doesn't care about player feelings) and he runs a tight ship.

Buono is a managerial style Head Coach.

Every other CFL Head Coach is more involved in coaching a unit. For example, in the West, Dickenson coordinates the offence and calls the plays in Calgary as does Jaason Maas in Edmonton. Chris Jones coordinates the defence in Saskatchewan, as he did in Edmonton the year before while Mike O'Shea is very involved in special teams in Winnipeg.

Buono sets direction and then defers offence, defense, and special team game planning and play calling to coordinators.

Buono, as a Head Coach, really understands the concept of developing team unity.

Buono's greatest strength this season was knowing 'the room'.

He let Andrew Harris go more for reasons of team chemistry than any other reason and deferred a lot of team leadership to his veteran players. That created 'player ownership' of the team.

Therefore this Leo team had great team chemistry.

On the negative side, Buono's One Best Way, in which he basically has his coordinators using simple 'tried and true' schemes and making few changes to those schemes hurts us.

Our simpler schemes are an asset at the start of a season but by season's end, most teams are adding to their repertoire while we basically stay the same. By the second half of the season, we are out scouted and outcoached. By playoff time, we are badly outscouted and outcoached.

As WCJ recently posted:

Space Age vs Old School. Dynamic philosophy vs conservative philosophy. Play to win vs play to not lose. Sophisticated, detailed game planning vs bread and butter, base level, generic for any opponent, game planning. Seemed like professional vs amateur. WCJ

During football games, Buono has always been mostly detached while yelling at his players and coaches if something goes wrong. He was more postitive at the start of this season but reverted back to form as the pressure mounted towards the end of the season. In games, he usuaally offers no advice to players. He often is a poor game manager, he's ultra conservative which hurts us more than helps us, and his challenge calls, sent down from above, need improvement.

Buono got more credit than deserved for this turnaround season. The real key to the success of this season was the play of Jonathan Jennings and Chris Rainey. Manny, Burnham, and Johnson also played very important roles.

Neither Jennings or Rainey started for us for most of the 2015 season. Take those two out of our lineup and I doubt we would have won more than 9 games and maybe less.

Still, even if it was not Buono's decision as to whom should be our Head Coach in 2017, it should be Buono. But if we really want to take the next step, one thing seriously has to change and that is Buono's philosophy. In the playoffs the Bombers had scored 25 points on us in the first half and the Stamps scored 32 points on us in the first half. That is not an exectution problem. Our offences did not get off to good starts in those games either.

Before the WDF, Buono said of his players "They have the game plan. Its now up to them to execute it or not". The game plan was nowhere good enough.

Before the WDF, I wrote: "This was going to be a game of two coaching different philosophies" and "Our coaching staff has to make plays".

I added: There are two basic philosophies to leadership. They are "The One Best Way' and "Contingency Leadership". The first philosophy basically is one of superiority. It basically says "I know best. You just have to execute my 'superior thinking'. The second philosophy says "I am humble. I know I need to constantly adapt to stay on top. I can't just ask my players to execute. It won't be enough".

If we want to be the best, and take the next step next season, our coaching staff has to pre-scout, game plan, scheme, and adapt as the best CFL coaching staff, as well as our players play the best on the field. That didn't happen this season. We were 3-6 this season against West opponents.

We won a lot of games this season with late fourth quarter winning drives (six of them). We won a lot of games because we saw more great plays from some very special players than we have in any regular season before. Jonathan Jennings, Manny Arseneaux, Bryan Burnham, Jeremiah Johnson, Chris Rainey, and Sol E. gave us 'the incredible', the 'magical', and the 'awe inspiring' on many, many occasions. They were the main storyline of this season. They were its theme. Without them, this season might have been very ordinary, in terms of success and in terms of football enjoyment

In the playoffs, both Winnipeg and Calgary installed some new and surprising plays and formations and those formations and plays had our Leos defense completely off- balance. We didn't do the same.

There are two basic philosophies to leadership.

They are "The One Best Way' and "Contingency Leadership". The first philosophy basically is one of superiority. It basically says "I know best. You just have to execute my 'superior thinking'. The second philosophy says "I am humble. I know I need to constantly adapt to stay on top. I can't just ask my players to execute. It won't be enough.

The 'players just gotta execute' mantra is so often repeated here in B.C. from Buono that players, media, and some fans spout it as if its a religion. Its not. Its a deflection. Its an abdication of responsibility. In no other sport is strategy more important than football.

We will not take the next step, no matter how many player changes we make or how many Leo free agents we sign back if we continue with "Football is like a Box of Italian Biscotti, you know what you are going to get, so you gotta eat 'em right". We have to move towards a football philosophy of Life is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you are going to get'.

Before the WDF playoff game, I wrote that the team that was the least predictable would be advantaged and our coaches needed to make plays too, I read a post and got a quote from Dave Dickenson thrown in my face that basically said, 'at this time of year, teams know each other well, don't make a lot of changes, just minor adjustments'. Of course Dickenson was going to say that.

Then Dave Dickenson went out in the first half and threw new formations and plays at us that surprised us and they scored 32 half time points.

In 2017, its going to take coaching philosophy changes to compete successfully in the West and challenge for the 2017 Grey Cup.

COORDINATORS AND ASSISTANTS

Khari Jones and Mark Washington are given philosophy and overall direction by Buono. They then scheme and call the plays off that direction.

Khari Jones basically ran the same offence this season as Cortez did last season. It was a vertical passing offence. Our offensive scheme was basically the old spread offence from the same old playbook of the 90's. The run game was basically the one play, inside zone read play, with zone blocking, that Dorazio has run since the 2007 season.

Towards the end of the regular season and our four game winning streak, Jones ran more two back off-set formations, used a pro formation with split backs at times, reintroduced the bunch formation and the pure spread six receiver set, added more motion, rather than just waggling slot backs to the line of scrimmage, moved his receivers around more.

Khari also introduced a few misdirection, semi-boot plays. He also added a fly sweep for Sinkfield. In the running game, he threw in a sweep play and used the quick pitch toss a couple of times. He even put in a fullback screen in one game and added a tailback screen play for Rainey. Both were badly designed but at least he was making changes and in-simplifying. But in the playoffs, we simplified again.

Here are just a few examples of what ails our offence. First of all we have the most mobile quarterback in the CFL and we keep him in the pocket almost exclusively.

Nichols killed our defense with rollouts. Jennings, against Man/Cover 2, could have run and run if he got outside. But the only time he got outside, including his incredible touchdown run against the Bombers in the playoffs, was due to his own ability to escape the pocket. Had we used misdirection rollouts against Man/Cover 2, we would have put that style of defence in hell.

Secondly, for game after game, in the late regular season and the playoff, we ran the quick swing pass to Rainey for little gain.

We ran the play 5 times against Calgary for 18 yards. There is no one faster or better than Rainey in the open field. The play was badly designd against press man coverage. We needed to delay the swing pass, letting the receivers take their man downfield first. Instead we telegraphed it time after time.

Yet Jones kept running the play again and again, with the same lack of success, when a simple adjustment could have led to outstanding results. Forrest Gump said "Stupid is as stupid does"

Finally, Buono was moaning, after the WDF, that we got shut down too many times on second and two. Is he blind? We got shut down on second and two often in our first game in Winnipeg. We kept getting shut down on second and two in most games in the late regular season, as defenses overplayed our inside zone read play. Allen got shut down in Winnipeg and Johnson got shut down often in second and short yardage in his remaining games.

Before the West Final I wrote that we needed to go with the zone read option on second and short. Of course we ran the zone read on second and two, on the first occasion in that game. Lined up again, second and two in that game, Jennings faked to Johnson and kept it for a first down. We never did it again for the rest of the playoffs.

Calgary shut us down, on second and two, because Buono and Jones just expected us to 'execute'. A different play call and its a different story.

Khari Jones showed, towards the end of the regular season of 2016 that he has the potential of becoming a top level offensive coordinator.

But Jones/Dorazio/Bellfefeuille have to do the following in 2017:

1. Add more running plays to attack a defense outside as well as inside
2. Use more misdirection play action for Jennings
3. Develop a more diversified passing attack by having both a horizontal passing game (aginst man|) and a vertical passing game (against zone)
4. Diversifying the run game and pass game with more screens plays and using the tailback in the passing game more innovatively.

Mark Washington's defence also needs to change for 2017. Wally is a 'zone guy' in terms of defence. Buono was only a defensive coordinator for one season. During his time, as a player and younger coach, that was what most teams did. Its also conservative defence or at least it was for a long period of time and conservative matches Buono's philosophy.

But passive zone defense is not conservative any more. Its actually dangerous if you play too much of it.

We gave up a lot of big plays this season while playing zone. Too many quarterbacks, developed in spread offences in college, throw the football well now. Recievers do a lot of film study. Offensive coordinators are better now and know how to attack seams in zones. Dickenson's offensive receivers and quarterbacks do a ton of film study. Many CFL teams played a lot of man or press man coverage this year, with zone over the top.

Defenses can't just play straight up zone anymore.

We try to disguise it, in many ways, but we are still primarily a zone defence. If we want to get to the next level, we have to change up more and play more aggressively at times. We zone blitzed at times towards the end of the season but most of the time, when we blitzed we used the Sol E. and Bighill A and B gap blitz. We need more variety than that - it became predictable.

Mark Washington also make mistakes personnel wise.

Washington stuck with Brandon Stewart all season, when Parker played better when given an opportunity. He stuck with Darius Allen for most of the season, while sitting out Bryant Turner Jr., who was our best defensive lineman at the conclusion of this season. When we activated Turner, Menard went into the rotation with Roh, which made Roh that much better. Washington is a C+ to B grade defensive coordinator. Claybrooks, in Calgary, as a rookie defensive coordinator, made more personell changes to his defense than Washington, changed the defensive style of Calgary's defense, and did a much better job than Washington.

Washington, who will be likely be back as a Buono trained defensive coordinator, needs to make the kind of changes that Claybrooks did in Calgary this year, scheme wise, if he wants our defence to become good enough to get to the next level.

Washington also needs to scout better and game plan better. Winnipeg and Calgary scoring 25 and 32 points respectively in the first half of playoff games showed poor preparation and game planning.

Marcello Simmons gave us solidity in special teams in most areas. We didn't look confused, as we did so many times in the McMann era. But our kickoff team's downfield coverage was terrible all season and Simmons never was able to address it. That needs to change if we want to get to the next level.

PLAYERS

I'm going to go out on a limb or two, in terms of player signings. We can't stay pat. Emotions can get in the way. We identify with certain players. But this team is not good enough yet. Most of the problems are coaching problems. We have more star players than any other CFL team. Our talent level is close to Calgary's but there are areas needing improvement, if we want to surpass them.

RECEIVERS

Manny, Burnham, and Gore will be back. They were our three top receivers, with Manny and Burnham finishing third and fourth in CFl receiving. The two big questions are whether to attempt to bring Sinkfield back and whether to bring back Iannuzzi.

I have mixed feelings about Sinkfield. He's fast. He's also expensive. He drops a lot of footballs. What I am convinced of is that we need a speed receiver in this spot. That means not a Nick Moore. Douglas McNeil could also step into Sinkfield's spot. Shaq Johnson is a speed National receiver who could also step into this spot, although we will likely go with an import. But we should activiate Shag Johnson for games and start rotations for our receiving crew, as Calgary does. Johnson could run fly sweeps or jailbreak screens for example.

As for Iannuzzi, I've written enough posts about my thoughts of Iannuzzi. Five receptions last year equaled Adekolu's receptions in one playoff game against Winnipeg.

Iannuzzi had his best season this year but he doesn't get open deep. Adekolu's is a long strider and a very big target. Blasco is ready to step in. Johnson could also play field widout. A rotation of Adekolu and either Blasco or Johnson makes sense to me.

OFFENSIVE LINE

We have to sign Hunter Stewart. He was our best offensive lineman in the second half of this season and not Olifioye.

Olifioye, Husband, and Antonio Johnson deserve to be starters again. However Vaillencourt needs to be a starting guard next year. His size, aggressiveness, and talent warrant it. If we stick with Olifioye at left tackle and get Steward signed at left guard, then Vaillencourt should start for Fabian.

Another option would be to move Fabian to left guard, where he has played before, Steward to left tackle, Husband at center, Vaillencourt at right guard, and move Olifioye back to right tackle. We would need to bring Boyko in or draft an offensive tackle to back up Steward at left tackle.

RUNNING BACKS

Both Jeremiah Johnson and Allen want to be back and play the rotation. Allen may be expensive and we could look at other International tailbacks at training camp next season who are cheaper to replace Allen. But we should sign him.

Shaq Murray Lawrence needs to be replaced and we should look at drafting a National tailback in the later rounds of the draft.

QUARTERBACKS

Jennings will be back as our starter and that's exciting. Hard to know what to think of Lulay. Jennings doesn't need mentoring.

It would be cheaper to have Lulay as a quarterback coach next year and use Price as the back up.

We should be bringing in a young quarterback out of college to develop. Should Jennings suffer a serious injiury, we could write up a new contract for Lulay and put him back in uniform.

DEFENSIVE LINE

We need to make some serious changes here and the best way to do it would be to change our linebacking and defensive back International ratio to go with three International defensive ends and two International defensive tackes.

Bazzie needs to be rotated.

Tedford was right last season about that last season. Bazzie was worn out by mid-season. We need a speed rusher that is good enough (not Darius Allen) to rotate with Bazzie. On the other side, we need to use Menard in a rotation with Roh and bring in a free agent or a couple of really good signings to challenge Roh.

Inside we can either go with Brooks and a dominating nose tackle type or go with Bryant Turner Jr. with a dominating nose tackle type. Right now Bryant Turner Jr. is better than Brooks.

As for Westerman, National defensive tackles are not easy to find

.

Forde may be able to replace Westerman but depth is important. If we can get Westerman signed at a reasonable price I would want him back but if not, then go with Forde in the three tackle rotation, with two Internationals and draft a National defensive tackle.

LINEBACKER

This will be controversial but I would break up Team 100.

If it was up to me, I would pay the price for Sol E. and cut Bighill.

That will likely surprise but Bighill is too easily blocked at times and he also misses a lot of tackles. He's a very good cover linebacker.

But Lokombo has size, speed, athleticism and should be starting.

I would go with Sol E and Lokombo but if Sol E. is too hard to sign, I would go with Lokombo and Bighill. Purifoy will be very hard to replace and missed if he goes south and he probably will. We could get him back if he doesn't make it.

DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD

Gaitor was our best defensive back at the end of the season by far.

I would say good bye to both Stewart and Phillips.

Stewart is not good enough, period. Phillips has been a fave of mine since he was a rookie. He can still cover and he is a vet but the time has arrived to get younger. Our wide side was our weakness this year.

Yell will be back at boundary corner. Parker, at field corner, would allow us to play an International safety.

Clarke or Gaitor could step into his spot. That would give us Yell and Parker at corner, Gaitor and Clarke at halfback. I would not have Edem as our starting safety. I would go with an International at saftey and just insert either Edem or Thompson when we go two deep.

Fenner could be given a look at nickelback.

Phillips could be brought to training camp to challenge at safety but I believe we would be better to get younger there too. Thompson should compete for a starting safety or half back position or could even be tried at nickel back.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This will likely surprise but I would go all National here.

I would sign McCallum as a short range field goal kicker and sign or draft an National punter who could kick long field goals.

Signing McCallum for one season would allow us to develop a National field goal kicker who would spend a year on the practice roster. McCallum would be paid to help develop him. McCallum helped Leone at the end of the season and would be willing to help coach a young kicker now, at this stage of his career.

WRAP

Adapt or die. Change or lose. Eat or get eaten. We have the nucleus in Jennings, Manny, Rainey, Burnham, Jeremiah Johnson, Steward, Olifioye, Husband, Bazzie etc. We need to improve our coaching and the surrounding parts. Here is to an even better 2017.

[B.C.FAN]

Finding the best way to deploy Bighill poses an interesting challenge for the coaching staff. I agree with those who say that signing Elimimian is a priority. He is the heart of a linebacker-focused defence. I also agree that Bighill missed too many tackles down the stretch and seemed overmatched against opposing blockers and bigger running backs. But Biggie has a big heart and he's under contract, so he's not going anywhere.

Here is where we could think outside the box. If healthy, Yell and Parker deserve to start on the corners, with Lee and Gaitor as halfbacks. They're all a bit undersized but have excellent coverage skills. The tough positions to fill will be nickelback and safety. At both positions we could use someone bigger who could come up and stop the run and blitz the QB, but also cover a lot of ground in zone or man defence. Biggie could play either position and be a weapon, not just a passive zone defender.

The Lions could use Lokombo, Arakgi or Adrian Clarke at Bighill's WILL spot and use Fenner, Steven Clarke or another international at safety or dime back and a new, bigger international defender with the size of an NFL safety at nickelback. That would allow the Lions to make more traditional situational substitutions in passing situations, bringing in an international dime back for an international D-lineman rather than bringing in Arakgi to play Bighill's spot, dropping BIghill to safety and taking out Edem as the Lions often did this year in one of their zone schemes. The Lions also dropped Biggie into a Cover-2 safety position on the short side without substitution, leaving the flats open. I hope that scheme can be retired in the offseason.

[Lionsfan65]

Coaching: Wally Buono has already stated that he will be back in 2017, that's a given, I would also be willing to bring back Washington and Jones as the Coordinators. Washington will be entering his fourth season as defensive coordinator, at times he has shown flashes of greatness, thinking up creative schemes, however he has also been way too passive at times, dropping Bighill to safety (which I think wears him out and might be part of the reason he missed so many tackles). I don't know how much of this is Buono's influence, however I would point to the first game we played against Saskatchewan this season, at half time Buono appears to tell Washington to put more preassure on Saskatchewan's rookie QB... it worked.

The main reason I would keep Jones, is there really isn't anybody else out there available who would be a good replacement, unless Millanovich gets fired in Toronto and would be willing to be a coordinator again, I would just as soon go with Jones again. My biggest criticism of Jones is his lack of creativity, and failure to adjust. While he is not as predictable as Cortez, at times the Lions offence looked like a one trick pony, run up the middle, and then pass deep to Manny. We can't use injuries as an excuse this year. I would be willing to give Jones one more year, see what he can do with a full offseason.

On defence I would do whatever it takes to sign Elimimian, he is by far the best defensive player in the CFL, and deserves to be paid as such. Although he is starting to get up there in age, he likely has about 5 years of good football left, so this will probably be his last big money contract. Since he is unlikely to try the NFL again I would offer him a three year contract in about the $250,000 range. The other half of team 100 is still under contract for one more year, while previous posters have criticized Bighill for his poor play during the second part of the season, I would blame that on the scheme and him getting tired quicker by running 30 yards deep to play safety and then having to run back and make a tackle. While is a pretty good cover guy in the flats and other short routes he should only be used as such. He is a stud. Purifoy will likely try the NFL, and I don't blame him, he had a great year. Should he leave that position will likely be a battle in training camp again. I would also like to see Lokombo back and inserted more in the defence. Adrian Clarke, while not seeing much action on defence is a great special teamer and I would love to have him back as well.

Our defensive line should be a major focus. I would like to see Brooks back. He was a monster last year and for the first half of this year, my guess is he was playing hurt for some of the year. I would like to see how he looks in training camp after a full offseason of rest, and I would like to play i=him at the 3 tech spot. Bryant Turner is an interesting case, while he played well for us this year he is a tad undersized on the inside. While I wouldn't mind seeing him back, I wouldn't be too sad if he left either as he is getting up there in age. For the right price I would love to see Westerman back, he is undersized to play nose, however he is a good rotation player at 3 tech. If any are available I would go after a big 300+lb nose tackle type who can hold double teams, whether it's an international player or a national player I think this is someone we desperately need. I would like to see Bazzie back, he is our best pass rusher at the moment, however he is not an every down player. If Roh leaves I wouldn't be too sad about that, I would rather have a stud defensive end in the 250 lb range such as Charleston Hughes, Sean Lemon or John Bowman type.

I would cut Brandon Stewart. He was our worst defensive back this year, often making Phillips look bad too. As much as I hate to draw a hockey reference here, defensive back pairings work almost like defensive pairings in the NHL, if one partner is terrible, the other one looks bad too. While Phillips will be 35 next year, I would like to see him play for a couple more years, maybe moving him down to wide corner, he played well there in 2011, or even moving him to safety and playing Parker on the corner, if we do that we should draft another national DB to play behind him. No question I would bring back Yell and Lee, they are both underrated and in my opinion form the best duo in the CFL. My starting secondary next year would be Yell, Lee, Phillips, Gaitor, and Parker with Fenner, Fraser, Edem and Thompson as the backups.

I would like to see our offensive line back, I think after Elimimian, Steward is our #2 priority. Oniell has already stated he will retire. While I have been impressed with Antonio Johnson at times this season, other times he has looked lost and been beaten badly. Something I would look at doing is moving Olafioye back to right tackle and bringing in Xavier Fulton, who in my opinion is one of the underrated tackles in the league. My o line for next season would be Fulton, Steward, Husband, Vaillencourt, Jovan with Fabien and the backup.

I think we are pretty much set at Quarterback

I would like to see Johnson back as running back, and I would also like to see Allen back. I would like to see us find a way to get them both on the roster at the same time. I would also bring Lumbala back, and use him more in our offense.

At receiver, Burnham is a must sign, I think we will be ok without Nick Moore, while he is a great reciever, I think Burnham is alost a carbon copy of Moore, and has a much higher ceiling. I would also bring back Sinkfield, just to see what he could do with a full camp. Ianuzzi at time does make some clutch catches, the kind people over at riderfans think pretty highly of him. I would like to see him back for the right price, but I wouldn't be heartbroken to see him somewhere else either.

On specials I would resign Mike Benson, he is a pretty good long snapper. Leone will probably try the NFL, and I don't blame his he has a big leg. I would resign McCallum for 1 more year for short field goals and PATs, however I would also bring in a Canadian to the longer kicks and eventually take over for McCallum too. If rumors are true Lirim Hajrullahu is a free agent this year.

[WestCoastJoe]

Just a few thoughts ...

D Line. We need a nose tackle type, a game breaker with size and mobility. Not all that hard to find as an International. 300 pounds plus. We need a rush end. IMO Bazzie is not it. Undersized. Does not play smart IMO. Gets worn down. He could be part of a package. We should draft a DL (and OL) every year.

LBs DBs. IMO it is how we play them, more than personnel, that matters. Some coaches do not play in your face defence with the excuse that the players are not fast enough, not good enough, not athletic enough. I do not buy that excuse. It is the attitude and values, even fear, of the coaches that prevent them from playing pressure D.

Offence. Attitude is the key. We need diversity in plays and approaches. That means game planning and play calling. Wally likes to keep it simple and go for superior execution. One can point to his massive number of victories as support for his philosophy. This fan would point to any number of failures as the reason and need for modern game planning. Examples have been posted endlessly throughout the year, and through years past.

Coaching. IMO our philosophy will be pretty much the same next year. Soft zone defence. Predictable pass patterns. Predictable run game. Old school focus on execution, defying the opponent to stop our offence, defying the opponent to march down the field against our defence. Yes, our opponents sure did do those things in the playoffs.

IMO there is a good chance we will backslide next year if we stay with the same old, same old. Teams have huge books now on Jonathon Jennings. As we see, he can be very hard to stop even if teams jump our routes, or if they double team key targets. But we play a mug's game by not mixing things up.

It will be Wally's Way in Wally's World, once again. And most fans seem content with that. Most importantly David Braley is content with that. Philosophy --> It seems very evident to this CFL fan that Wally's coordinators dial it up the way he wants it. Conservative. Basic. Old School. Khari and Mark W have mixed in some more sophisticated packages at times. With some success. And they have been quickly mothballed. Back to the basic. Back to same old, same old.

Just IMO ...

[WestCoastJoe]

http://www.si.com/vault/1982/07/26/6246 ... -and-amaze

One of the coaches to bring more sophistication and detailed planning to the game, with success, was Bill Walsh. This quote is from 1982. Still relevant. And IMO old school can still work, but I think it needs to take full advantage of deception and attacks on even minute vulnerabilities also.

NFL. CFL. It's all football. And it's all relevant, IMO. Great coaches and players in both leagues. As it happens, this fan much prefers the CFL, and no doubt, on into the future. To my mind, this quote captures the difference between old school philosophy and modern.

Asked whether it is fair to call coaching differences conflicting ideologies, he (Walsh) says, "In the Midwest, there's a philosophy or approach that people become students of, or parties to, personified by Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler, which is based on fundamentals and disciplined play. Individual ability isn't much of a factor. Not that players are clones, but parts of a unit that functions methodically. Certain precepts control it. In each situation here is what you do. It's a sound approach, and the drills and appearance and values are similar from school to school. It's predictable, but they feel comfortable with that. It's as if one side says, 'We know where you're going and we're going to stop you' and the other side says, 'We know you know, but no, you're not.' Success then is related to execution, to superior personnel. If you have the best players, you want to create a situation in which the best win, if only marginally. That's conservative football—siege warfare. The somberness and drudgery can be overstated, of course. Hayes is an intelligent and scholarly man with more feeling for his players than almost anyone I've met. The problem is when an Indiana, say, without the personnel, tries again and again to compete that way. I'm not sure that such schools take full advantage of the game's rules." -- Bill Walsh, as quoted by Kenny Moore, July 26, 1982

[Qman]

Wally said the team was "right up against the cap" this year, but who were our big ticket items?

Solly made $200K in 2016 per NEWS1130, Jennings was only at $150K, and I believe Travis was around $175K. The others that I would expect to be on the high side are Emmanuel Arceneaux (signed a 2-year contract last year for $425K), Olafioye, RP, and Biggie. But we don't have anyone making in the $400-$500K range like some other teams with their marquee quarterbacks (i.e. Edmonton and Mike Reilly).

Also, how did it get to the point where we allowed ourselves the onerous task of dealing with 24 free agent contracts? Could we not have re-upped some of these guys during the season and signed them to extensions?


DH

I just discovered a site called LoonieCap that details player contracts and the overall status of team cap space. I have no idea what the reputation of the site is but according to what they post, the Lions have just over a million in cap space. They are somewhat up to date as they list Drew Willy as an Argo but don't list Henoc Muamba as a Roughrider.

As for the 24, welcome to the era of the one year contract.

because site only have 8 lion contracts and everyone else making 52k.

BC lions are tight against the cap because they were relatively healthy this year and only 6-gamed a few players during 2016. Wally in the past has effectlvely used any excess in current year to give a guy a signing bonus in December and then lower salary in future years. Might not have that flexiblity this year.

[DanoT]

Just a few thoughts ...

D Line. We need a nose tackle type, a game breaker with size and mobility. Not all that hard to find as an International. 300 pounds plus. We need a rush end. IMO Bazzie is not it. Undersized. Does not play smart IMO. Gets worn down. He could be part of a package. We should draft a DL (and OL) every year.

LBs DBs. IMO it is how we play them, more than personnel, that matters. Some coaches do not play in your face defence with the excuse that the players are not fast enough, not good enough, not athletic enough. I do not buy that excuse. It is the attitude and values, even fear, of the coaches that prevent them from playing pressure D.

Offence. Attitude is the key. We need diversity in plays and approaches. That means game planning and play calling. Wally likes to keep it simple and go for superior execution. One can point to his massive number of victories as support for his philosophy. This fan would point to any number of failures as the reason and need for modern game planning. Examples have been posted endlessly throughout the year, and through years past.

Coaching. IMO our philosophy will be pretty much the same next year. Soft zone defence. Predictable pass patterns. Predictable run game. Old school focus on execution, defying the opponent to stop our offence, defying the opponent to march down the field against our defence. Yes, our opponents sure did do those things in the playoffs.

IMO there is a good chance we will backslide next year if we stay with the same old, same old. Teams have huge books now on Jonathon Jennings. As we see, he can be very hard to stop even if teams jump our routes, or if they double team key targets. But we play a mug's game by not mixing things up.

It will be Wally's Way in Wally's World, once again. And most fans seem content with that. Most importantly David Braley is content with that. Philosophy --> It seems very evident to this CFL fan that Wally's coordinators dial it up the way he wants it. Conservative. Basic. Old School. Khari and Mark W have mixed in some more sophisticated packages at times. With some success. And they have been quickly mothballed. Back to the basic. Back to same old, same old.

Just IMO ...

A great post especially the last two paragraphs. Somehow Wally and his staff are unable or unwilling to grasp the concept that for the playoffs the path to success is catch your opponent off guard; best achieved not necessarily with trick plays but with a new page in the playbook with formations and plays that the opponent has never seen or at least hasn't seen since early in the season.

I too expect the Lions to regress next season unless Wally can somehow hire Mark Trestman as GM/HC while Wally semi retires to the role of Capologist Consultant.

[TheLionKing]

Lionsfan65
The main reason I would keep Jones, is there really isn't anybody else out there available who would be a good replacement, unless Millanovich gets fired in Toronto and would be willing to be a coordinator again, I would just as soon go with Jones again. My biggest criticism of Jones is his lack of creativity, and failure to adjust. While he is not as predictable as Cortez, at times the Lions offence looked like a one trick pony, run up the middle, and then pass deep to Manny. We can't use injuries as an excuse this year. I would be willing to give Jones one more year, see what he can do with a full offseason.

That in itself is reason to be fired. He seems incapable of making in game adjustments til half time. He's had two go at it as Offensive Coordinator. Both times he had promised an attacking offence. Anybody seen it ?

[aklawitter]

People seem to forget that Bighill had over 100 tackles this season, despite playing faux safety half the time. Missed tackles will happen when you have to come from outside the tackle box.

I can see Phillips back, as a utility DB similar to how MW was used in the twilight of his playing days.

Nic Moore was the forgotten receiver after his dumb injury.

The reason why I think Olafioye gets the axe (and I'm not the first on here to think this), is that he's a big ticket, and Wally has a history of releasing good players a year early.

[CardiacKid]

In regards to whom the Lions will be courting amongst their upcoming free agents, so much depends on who else is going to be potentially available from the other teams. I don't know if Wally would have been okay with letting Harris go if the likes of Johnson and Allen weren't available? Maybe he would have but it probably made that decision easier.

Without knowing who else in the league is listed as an upcoming free agent, I am going to forego any prognostications. But I will wish the Lions make every effort possible to resign players that made the team fun and entertaining to watch (Burnham and Johnson) after a dry spell in that department. I also hope every effort is made to retain our Canadian talent (Lokombo and Parker) when the team has struggled in that area as well.

The Leo's made advancements in playing entertaining football; let's not go backwards. Also we had a great draft; let's not loose that momentum by seeing potential starters like Parker and Lokombo cast adrift.

[Blitz]

It will be Wally's Way in Wally's World, once again. And most fans seem content with that. Most importantly David Braley is content with that. Philosophy --> It seems very evident to this CFL fan that Wally's coordinators dial it up the way he wants it. Conservative. Basic. Old School. Khari and Mark W have mixed in some more sophisticated packages at times. With some success. And they have been quickly mothballed. Back to the basic. Back to same old, same old. WCJ

Its a positive, to read on Lionbackers, that the key to improving our Leos team for 2017, will not just be based on Leo player signings or releases, giving some Leo non-starters this season an opportunity, the signing of free agents, and the draft. All of those are important. But those alone don't address what needs to be addressed. Its what the usual focus is.

But all the player signings in the world or an upgrade in talent will not enable us to make that big step to a Grey Cup berth unless our coaching significantly improves.

THE 'CULT' OF BUONO, OPTICS, AND THE 'RELIGION' OF EXECUTION

Buono's mantra "It's player execution" as the only key to victory or the reason for losses is not just a Wally Buono 'belief system'. Its an optics strategy and crusading religion to indoctrinate 'converts'. It's designed intentionally to make Buono our football 'pontiff' and his strategy and game planning as our Leos 'bible', never to be questioned.

Our players have been trained to believe in the religion of 'execution', to spout the words "its all about execution' before a game, and to assume all blame for losses with "We didn't execute".

For the rare times that any reporter questions coaching, they are invited to a Buono chalk board session, where Buono will go out of his way and spend time with that reporter 'proving' that any problems in a game were an 'execution' problem. Buono even invited TheLionKing, from our Lionbackers website to a discussion to 'enlighten' him.

For Buono, optics are almost everything. Anyone who refers to himself as a 'legend' certainly is not someone who is actively engaged in self-reflection. Blame is assigned to others. My hope, one day, is that our football reporters and media will finally have the courage to write about the coaching and strategy problems that ail our Leos.

Football reporters or columnists as Mike Beamish, Ed Willes, and Cam Cole are smart guys but they have either been 'sold' on the Buono mystique or they lack the courage to write about our coaching issues.

Because optics are so important to Buono, the only way that I think Buono and our coaching staff would improve is if their strategies and game planning came under the spotlight from our press and media. Buono wouldn't like it and he would do everything to dispel any notion that responsibility rests with himself and his coaching staff. He might make a general statement that the coaching staff is also responsible and everyone has to do better but that would be it.

The Bombers scored 25 first half points against us. Calgary scored 32 half time points against us. Calgary shut out our high powered offence to 0 points in the second half of our last regular season game against them and the first half of the WDF. Yet not a whiff from the press about our game planning and schemes and play calling. Yet these scenarios were obviously much, much more than a lack of execution issue.

My criticism of Wally Buono does not mean that I don't want Buono as our Head Coach. I do. Buono brings presence, stature, and experience to the position.

He is very good at creating team chemistry and weeding out players with cancerous or negative attitudes. He is good at creating a 'team' atmosphere, he demands and has high expectations of his players, and he runs a tight ship.

But he also gets too much credit at times and his coaching and his coaching staff's schemes, game preparation, or play calling rarely, rarely ever put under the spotlight.

Wally puts all the responsiblity on the players and so do the press. Its not healthy and it doesn't help our Leos team any better because of it. It's taken on a 'cult' like atmosphere, with only a number of Lionbacker posters looking at our Leos team objectively and fairly, attempting to look at all areas of our Leos team, in terms of reasons for success or failure.

Lets have a closer look at the WDF, as an example.

We played flat but they had a good game plan,” said Jennings. “Our offence wasn’t as explosive. We didn’t get the ball downfield like we usually do.”

Jennings was asked if his team was ready to play at a championship level. “We felt like it,” he said. “But sometimes you just get beat.”
Buono, however, wasn’t ready to give his charges a free pass in that department.

“Did I feel the energy we wanted (before the game)?” he asked rhetorically. “No. I didn’t feel the energy. That’s not necessarily who our team is.”

Buono assigns the 'lack of energy' on our players. Yet this has been an often recurring problem of Buono coached teams in the playoffs, with different players in different seasons, over a long stretch of time.

Before the WDF, I wrote:

Wally Buono has a record of too many poor starts in playoff games.

Some of that is due to predictability. Buono's philosophy has been "Keep on keeping on', which basically has meant doing the same things that got us there. In the playoffs, Buono is not going to do what Paul LaPolice did to us in the first half of last weeks game and surprise. If life is like a box of chocolates, with Buono you know what you are going to get. His argument would be 'try to stop us'.

But Buono's teams in the playoffs have come out nervous, uptight, and mistake prone too often. You could see the pressure and nerves in Buono's face in the last few contests as he badly wanted a home playoff berth and also to win the Semi-Final. He's lost his temper on the sidelines more in the past few games than he did all season, when he was much calmer for most of this year.

Buono needs to get back to being more composed and confident before a game.

His players will sense that and perform better to start the game, instead of being all nervous and therefore lose focus. Buono is a fighter. Our Leos fight like he does should we be down. We'll play to the final whistle. Buono doesn't give up and hates to lose. His players reflect that. But Calgary is a team that will be difficult to 'fight' back if we give them too much of an early lead.

Ryan Phillips, who was one of many Leos badly beaten in the first half of the Semi-Final, when we gave up 25 first half points said "It was the simple things that were killing us in the first half,” said Phillips. “Busted coverages, a lack of communication. Things we had been doing for 18 weeks". Sol E added "We were making a lot of dumb mistakes in the first half. I feel like in the first half we let our Then we recomposed ourselves.”

Ryan Phillps comments "We have to go out there mentally focused. That team (Calgary) is not going to let us come back from a deficit like that. They don’t kill themselves. They are a disciplined team.”

Colleague Lionbackers also wrote about our issue of poor game preparation and our Leos coming out flat and unprepared in the past.

For example B.C. Fan posted:

This game comes down to coaching. The Lions won the WSF last week despite being out-coached. The biggest difference between the teams is in coaching philosophy. In the playoffs, Wally Buono and his coaching staff always believe in sticking with what brought them there. Dave Dickenson believes more in tailoring his game plan to exploit specific weaknesses.

David wrote:

This is classic Wally Buono playoff M.O. though. Let them adjust to us. Just keep doing what got us here (not what we saw them do on film last time we played them and they completely neutralized our two main weapons!). Just play fast and physical.

West Coast Joe posted:

But, even more important, for a playoff game such as this, is game planning. Vanilla and pablum will not do it. Must be specific and detailed for this opponent. Must be based on close analysis of the film, with focus on perceived vulnerabilities and tendencies. Don't all teams do that? LOL Ummmm, methinks not. Old school does not care about specific, detailed, fresh game prep for each opponent. Old school cares about execution, hitting harder.

Calgary will game plan vs our defence. Oh yes. Soft zone --> slow death, even fast death. PIcked apart. Mitchell having a cup of coffee in the pocket. We even hear our players recite the team philosophy: Stay with what got us here. Well, that is loyalty, but IMO if we do not prep creatively, we could face a beating.

Calgary will game plan vs our offence. Take away the main targets. Overplay. Blitz with good planning. Mix things up. Work to stuff the inside run. Pretty hard to stuff JJ24 and Rainey however. Pretty hard to stuff JJ on zone reads, QB draws and scrambles. Moving the pocket would be advantageous.

An Xs and Os guy like Dickenson loves to do this kind of detailed game planning. Even an ex STs guy like O'Shea had his coordinators do a great job of out game planning us. Be a shame if we just trot out the same old, same old. IMO it will not cut it. Be a shame to waste our terrific talent, spirit and morale.

Yet, not a mention from the press or media regarding our coaching staff's responsibility for not having our team 'energized, properly prepared, or a half decent game plan in place. Its always the same old pablum - 'good ol' Wally when we win and bad player execution or responsibility when we lose. Its unbalanced reporting. The press and media are not supposed to be 'fans' of our coaching staff. Columnists especially are supposed to have a higher level of objectivity and analysis.

BUONO AND BLAME - WALLY'S WORLD AND REALITY

Buono, in his post game conference, lays the blame on his players for the loss, not only for their 'lack of energy' to begin the game but on poor player execution on second down and short. A more detailed look at this specific topic will be discussed later in this post but let's have a read of what Buono said:

Three times we couldn’t convert on second and two (in the first half). All of a sudden you’re punting, you’re punting, you’re punting and your defence is exposed, exposed, exposed. The last thing you want to do is be exposed to Bo Levi because he’s going to hurt you.”

Well, first of all, Buono's comments are innaccurate, but since they were not challenged, everyone who read the article would assume, since Buono said them and there was no reporting that pointed out the inaccuracy, most readers would assume Buono's comments were true.

We had six offensive drives in the first half. Three of those drives involved second down and five yards or less. On our second drive we had a second and three situation. on our fourth drive we had a second and two, and on our fifth drive we had a second and five.

We didn't convert any of those second down and five or less situations. Now lets look at the play calls for second down and five or less situations, in the order they occurred.

On second and three, we went with the swing pass to Rainey. Rainey gained 1 yard on the play and we had to punt. On second and two, we went with the inside zone read run to Johnson. Johnson lost 1 yard and we had to punt.

The third situation was second and five. We threw an incomplete pass to Burnham.

The next shorter second down situation in the first half was on our third offensive drive of the game. It was a second and seven situation. We threw a quick swing pass to Rainey and lost 6 yds. (-6).

SECOND AND SHORT - THE INSIDE ZONE READ RUN

Regarding Jeremiah Johnson's losing 1 yard (-1) on second and two, I wrote, before this game and before the playoffs began the following:

The reality is defenses know the inside zone read is coming on second and short. They know we will be running inside, with zone blocking from five offensive linemen, who will use exactly the same footwork to block laterally on the play. They know, if they align a certain way, as in lining up a defensive tackle over center, it will force the double team block first and then the guard will have to peel off to block into the second layer. Then the defense plays the game of numbers.

We have five offensive linmen blocking four down linemen, two linebackers, a nickel linebacker, plus the throw in a safety or defensive back to the mix. They have them close to the line of scrimmage so they can quickly knife in there. If there is criticism, it will be the fault of our players.

No matter how good the blocking is on the play, with the way it is being defensed, the play has a very low chance of success.

The notion of using a different running play on second and two, or blocking it differently, with a lead blocker leading it inside, is not even considered. We have a superior scheme, this is the right play call for this situation, and its up to you to execute it so it works. Crazy!

Its not stubbornness. Its black and white thinking, It never asks the important question the coaching staff needs to ask: "Is there something different we could be doing as coaches, on second and 2.

If we use the zone read option, with Jennings keeping it a couple of times early, in this game, it will make the Stamps ends respect it, and open up our inside run. We also need to use a pitch toss. Most games we just run inside, even if the opposition is in Man/Cover 2.
we're basically an inside zone read one play (with zone blocking) team with our running attack. The only variation is that we change the blocking scheme for it a bit if Lumbala is in the game.

We used the zone read option once this season. In the West Semi-Final, on our second 2nd and two situation, Jennings faked to Johnson and ran it outside the defensive end for an easy first down. We were stopped numerous times this season on second and two using the zone read inside run.

Of course our offensive line will be blamed, even though Calgary had more defenders than we had blockers for the play in the WDF. Same old play, same old result, same old blame.

SECOND DOWN - THE QUICK SWING PASS TO RAINEY

We failed on two second down situations on second and short because we telegraphed the quick swing pass to Rainey. Rainey got 1 yard on a second and three situation and lost 6 yards (-6) on another second down situation. Before the WDF, I wrote that we not only telegraphed the play but the play was also badly deigned against Man/Cover 2.

Here is what was written BEFORE this WDF against Calgary and even before:

What we should not do is throw the quick swing pass to Rainey. Its better to delay him out of the backfield, if its a swing pass, and let our receivers take their man defenders downfield first, to open up space.

But here is what Jones is not getting - he wants to run the quick swing pass to Rainey. The man defenders peel off their receivers and shut it down. He needs to delay it.

Here is why. Keep the back in to block initially. Wait for the receivers to take their man defenders downfield. Then throw to the tailback. All he has to do is beat the middle linebacker then. If he does, its clear sailing. If you really want to make the play work run a crossing pattern and have the crossing pattern receiver screen off the middle linebacker or run the route right at him. Then throw to the tailback, who will be completely clear. Duh.

So if Wally wants to boo hoo and blame his players because 'your punting, punting, punting and your defense is exposed, exposed, exposed' he needs to look directly at himself and Khari Jones for those play calls.

Why? Because if I can see them and Lionbackers can see that they will not work, why can't a 'legend' and a professional offensive coordinator see them?

The reason is simple. They are blind to them. Why are they blind to them, even though they are obviously knowledgeable football men? Because they don't question themselves. They need to incorporate Rudyard Kiplings advice: "Trust yourself when all men doubt you, but make allowance for their doubting too.

They know that what they are doing is the One Best Way'. When anything goes wrong its a player 'execution problem'.

Go with different play calls or run the zone read option instead of the inside zone read run and run the delayed swing to Rainey, instead of the quick swing and we very likely have first downs. They would have changed the complexion of the game. They might have gained us momentum. Momentum in a game of this magnitude is so important. Plus you can't beat a team like Calgary doing dum things.

WRAP

As Forrest Gump said "Stupid is as stupid does". The usual script goes on. The players take responsibility and comment they didn't execute. Buono says the players 'didn't execute'. The press takes the comments verbatim and almost everyone thinks we 'didn't execute'. The focus for 2017 is on player signings and changes. No focus will be on the coaching aspect of our Leos team.

I crave 'Smart is as smart does.

Same old storyline. If it doesn't change, the likelihood in next year's playoffs will be the same old result too.