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ed_lunsford wrote:If this is the official make a prediction effort:
11-7, I do think we will have a slow start, but I also think Printers makes some positive things happen on the field.
Points for..396
Points allowed...328
can you remember the last time thisteam scored less than 400 points? I bet they didnt do it with more than 9 wins. Are you saying we will have the best defense in the league by far??
1998 and 1980. Just under 400 with 8 and 9 win seasons.
Whisperin' Jimmy wrote:...a tie is even more improbable this year with the 'must-go-for-two' rule.
I would disagree. It's on both teams to convert (or fail to convert) their 2pt attempts. I'd have to believe an even exchange, whether it's six or eight — and a sustained tie — is equally as likely as the combined chances of 8-6 or 6-8 outcomes to determine a winner.
Hmmmm.... I thought the whole point of the rule change was to make a result more likely. Let us presume the percentage of missed 2-point conversions is 50% (a figure which I just this very moment made up). The percentage of missed converts is, conservatively, 0%. So it seems to me this has to make an even exchange less likely.
Ok, I thought about this some more and if you simplify OT to a convert contest — which is basically how we're looking at it — then it looks like you're right. Let's say the probability of a successful convert (1 or 2pt) is x, then in a one round convert contest, the probability of a winner emerging is P = 2x(1-x). For a 1pt convert, x is about 0.99, and then P is about 0.02, or a 2% chance. For a 2pter, x is much less; but even if it's as high as 0.9, then P is still 18%, nearly ten times greater. It's only in the case where x=0.5 (i.e. all convert attempts having both outcomes equally likely), that ties don't become less likely for compulsory 2pt attempts and that was my initial thought process.
I think how it actually plays out on the field will be more interesting since the above argument makes simplifying assumptions that aren't necessarily true and would only apply on average anyway. There could be plenty of noise in a small data set of 81 games, especially when all the feet get stomping at Empire.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.
sj-roc wrote:Let's say the probability of a successful convert (1 or 2pt) is x, then in a one round convert contest, the probability of a winner emerging is P = 2x(1-x)....
I'm sure you're right, but I stopped reading right there. I was a liberal arts major, dammit.
(I notice the Riders / Als game saw three of four 2-points converts successful. However, I can't believe teams will continue at that pace.)
"Football combines the two worst things about America: it is violence punctuated by committee meetings." -George F. Will
sj-roc wrote:Let's say the probability of a successful convert (1 or 2pt) is x, then in a one round convert contest, the probability of a winner emerging is P = 2x(1-x)....
I'm sure you're right, but I stopped reading right there. I was a liberal arts major, dammit.
(I notice the Riders / Als game saw three of four 2-points converts successful. However, I can't believe teams will continue at that pace.)
Actually it was 2 of 2 2-point converts being successful, the Riders didn't need to line up for the extra two after jumping ahead on the TD with 6 points.
Rammer wrote:Actually it was 2 of 2 2-point converts being successful, the Riders didn't need to line up for the extra two after jumping ahead on the TD with 6 points.
Right you are. Must have been the Canada Day libations playing tricks with my memory!
"Football combines the two worst things about America: it is violence punctuated by committee meetings." -George F. Will
sj-roc wrote:Let's say the probability of a successful convert (1 or 2pt) is x, then in a one round convert contest, the probability of a winner emerging is P = 2x(1-x)....
I'm sure you're right, but I stopped reading right there. I was a liberal arts major, dammit.
(I notice the Riders / Als game saw [2 of 2] 2-points converts successful. However, I can't believe teams will continue at that pace.)
Probability is indeed a notoriously nebulous subject, even among the science crowd. Check out the Monty Hall Problem sometime if you really want a braintwister!
And true, one game is not enough to draw a firm conclusion. Need at least a full season, maybe more if only a few OT's happen.
Sports can be a peculiar thing. When partaking in fiction, like a book or movie, we adopt a "Willing Suspension of Disbelief" for enjoyment's sake. There's a similar force at work in sports: "Willing Suspension of Rationality". If you doubt this, listen to any conversation between rival team fans. You even see it among fans of the same team. Fans argue over who's the better QB or goalie, and selectively cite stats that support their views while ignoring those that don't.